TD Cowen has maintained a Buy recommendation and a $64.00 price target on GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL), keeping the waste and environmental services company among its preferred picks. The reiterated target equates to roughly 45% upside from the stock's then-current quote of $44.05, and aligns with a broader analyst consensus of 1.8, or Strong Buy.
The research house said it views GFL's 2026 guidance as "a low bar" relative to the company's potential, and expects the firm to surpass that guidance, possibly by multiple factors, as it steps up merger and acquisition activity. TD Cowen highlighted several conditions that could drive upside, including subdued commodity prices, advantageous foreign exchange rates, and what it considers a low valuation on the shares.
Third-party data supports parts of that assessment. InvestingPro metrics show GFL with a Piotroski Score of 9, the highest possible rating, which the research note cited as an indicator of strong financial health ahead of the company's next earnings release on February 24. InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis was also referenced, indicating that GFL, with a market capitalization of $15.79 billion, is trading near its assessed fair value.
TD Cowen additionally observed that manufacturing and construction activity remain depressed overall, though it noted "some green shoots" beginning to appear in these end markets. The firm synthesized these factors into a favorable risk/reward profile for GFL, justifying the maintained Buy rating and price target.
GFL's recent reported results and forward-looking figures provide context for the analysts' positive view. The company reported a 7.3% year-over-year revenue increase for the fourth quarter of 2025 and achieved a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin for the period. Management has issued revenue guidance of $7.0 billion for 2026, implying an 8% increase versus the prior year.
Not all brokers are moving in the same direction on price targets. Scotiabank trimmed its price objective for GFL from $57.00 to $56.00 while retaining a Sector Outperform rating. That reduction was attributed to foreign exchange headwinds factored into GFL's 2026 outlook. Scotiabank emphasized that, when adjusted for currency effects, the company's guidance still appears robust.
Operational progress cited by analysts and management was another supporting element for the positive case. The company has been pursuing expansion in the U.S. market and implementing operational efficiencies, both of which were noted as contributors to recent performance and the overall financial picture.
TD Cowen's maintained Buy rating rests on a combination of company-level execution, external market dynamics, and valuation considerations. The firm flagged potential upside from M&A acceleration, commodity and FX tailwinds, and a view that the current trading level understates the company's prospects. At the same time, the brokerage acknowledged that end-market volumes in manufacturing and construction remain weak, even if there are early signs of improvement.
Contextual note - The metrics and ratings above reflect the positions and analyses reported by the research firms and third-party data services cited. Investors should consider those perspectives alongside other available information prior to making investment decisions.