Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

TD Cowen hikes TFI International target to $130 after Q4 beat; first-quarter outlook soft

Analyst keeps Buy rating while the company navigates a difficult start to 2025 and shifts focus to core operations

By Maya Rios TFII
TD Cowen hikes TFI International target to $130 after Q4 beat; first-quarter outlook soft
TFII

TD Cowen raised its price target on TFI International to $130 from $112 and maintained a Buy rating after the company reported a fourth-quarter beat but provided first-quarter guidance below expectations. TFI faced a weak January, with U.S. less-than-truckload (LTL) metrics improving in February. Management is prioritizing operational turnaround over large acquisitions, while data-center and electric grid transportation businesses showed meaningful revenue gains.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen raised TFI International's price target to $130 from $112 and maintained a Buy rating; the new target implies about 12% upside from the cited $116.27 share price and follows a 17.14% year-to-date gain.
  • TFI posted a fourth-quarter beat but provided first-quarter guidance below expectations; January 2025 was weak while U.S. LTL metrics improved in February.
  • Management is prioritizing operational turnaround over pursuing large mergers and acquisitions; specialized revenue streams like data-center transportation ($43 million in 2025) and electric grid-related services (over $110 million last year) are growing.

TD Cowen has increased its 12-month price target on TFI International (NYSE:TFII) to $130 from $112 and left its Buy rating intact. The new target equates to roughly 12% upside from the stock's then-current price of $116.27, at a time when shares have already gained about 17.14% year-to-date.

The analyst firm pointed to a fourth-quarter performance that beat expectations, even as TFI issued guidance for the first quarter that fell short of investor hopes. Management and the company have described a challenging start to 2025, with January proving particularly difficult. TD Cowen noted signs of recovery in February, with U.S. less-than-truckload - or LTL - metrics showing improvement after the weak opening to the year.

InvestingPro data referenced by analysts records a "Fair" financial health score of 2.34 for TFI, indicating the firm retains measurable balance sheet and cash-flow characteristics but is not rated as top-tier on that metric.

TD Cowen also warned that a weaker broader market environment is likely to constrain upside in the first quarter despite the encouraging February LTL readings. The firm emphasized that while those February metrics look better relative to January, the near-term macro and cyclical backdrop could limit meaningful outperformance versus expectations.

On strategic posture, TD Cowen expects large mergers and acquisitions to be unlikely for TFI this year. Instead, the company appears to be concentrating on stabilizing and improving its core operations rather than pursuing major deal activity.

Analysts at TD Cowen reiterated their Buy stance alongside the new price target.


Other recent developments for the company were noted in analyst and corporate updates:

  • TFI reported $43 million in revenue in 2025 from its data center-related transportation business, with quarterly expansion from $8 million in Q1 to more than $15 million in Q4.
  • Revenue tied to electric grid-related transportation surpassed $110 million last year, signaling notable activity in that segment.
  • Stifel raised its price target on TFI to $113 from $100, citing the company’s track record as a consolidator of transportation and logistics assets across North America.
  • BofA Securities nudged its target to $93 from $90 but maintained an Underperform rating following the company’s disclosure of its growing role in data-center and electric grid transportation.
  • In governance changes, André Bérard will retire as Lead Director after 23 years on the board. Diane Giard is set to succeed him; she has been an Independent Director since 2018 and serves on the Audit Committee.

These items collectively underscore TFI International’s twin focus on operational repair and selective growth within specialized transport segments such as data-center logistics and electric grid-related services. The company’s near-term trajectory will likely hinge on execution against operational priorities and how the broader market environment shapes demand for freight and LTL services.


Given the mixed signals - a quarterly beat alongside softer near-term guidance - investors and sector observers will be watching subsequent monthly LTL metrics and management commentary for evidence of sustained recovery and execution on the stated turnaround plan.

Risks

  • First-quarter guidance came in below expectations and a weaker broader market environment could limit near-term upside - this primarily affects transportation and logistics sector exposure.
  • TFI experienced a difficult January in 2025; while U.S. LTL metrics improved in February, the early-2025 weakness introduces uncertainty for quarterly performance and cash flow durability in the short term.
  • The decision to delay large M&A narrows potential inorganic growth avenues, leaving operational execution as the main lever for value creation - if turnaround efforts stall, logistics and specialized transport revenues could underperform.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026