TD Cowen has lowered its price target on Tyler Technologies (NYSE:TYL) to $600 from $650 while preserving a Buy rating, a firm action that precedes the company s upcoming quarterly report. The stock has slid sharply, falling 20.77% over the past week and trading near a 52-week low of $321.33.
The downgrade in target arrives as investors and analysts turn attention to metrics that TD Cowen s lead analyst, Andrew Sherman, says will matter most in the near term. Sherman highlights software-as-a-service (SaaS) bookings as a key data point that could influence sentiment around Tyler s preliminary fiscal 2026 SaaS revenue guidance of 20% growth.
Sherman argues that SaaS bookings could show a replay of stronger growth owing in part to what he calls a 19-point easier year-over-year comparison, a dynamic that might help reaccelerate bookings and bolster confidence in the company s guidance. He characterizes Tyler s market - selling mission-critical systems of record - as having limited downside from artificial intelligence disruption, calling it a "very durable end market."
On valuation, TD Cowen sees the shares as attractively priced at roughly 17x EV/FCF despite the lower target, describing that multiple as "highly attractive."
Analyst landscape
Despite recent price weakness, InvestingPro data indicate that analyst recommendations remain broadly positive, with a consensus Buy on the stock. Several other brokerages have updated their views recently:
- Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $671 from $708, while maintaining an Overweight rating and noting expectations for sizable SaaS revenue and free cash flow growth by 2026.
- Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $560 price target, citing Tyler s strong position in technology adoption among state and local governments.
- Stifel also began coverage with a Buy rating and set a $550 price target, emphasizing the company's focus on public-sector software and services.
Strategic dealmaking
Tyler Technologies has announced a definitive agreement to acquire For The Record, a digital court-recording company, for approximately $212.5 million in cash. Management expects the deal to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. The acquisition forms part of Tyler s effort to broaden its digital recording capabilities.
Outlook and near-term focus
With the earnings release on the horizon, investors and market participants will be watching SaaS bookings closely as a barometer of revenue momentum and guidance credibility. Analyst commentary in recent days reflects a range of price targets and coverage starts, but a consistent theme is confidence in Tyler s growth in public-sector software and services.
Given the stock s recent volatility, valuation multiples, guidance execution and the successful closing and integration of the For The Record transaction will likely shape near-term performance and investor perception.