TD Cowen has lowered its price objective for HubSpot Inc to $270 from $370 while keeping a Hold recommendation on the shares. The firm’s revised target comes as HubSpot (NYSE: HUBS) trades at $209.33, just above a 52-week low of $207.20, after a year-over-year decline of 73.35%.
The brokerage highlighted several elements of HubSpot’s recent performance that weighed into its reassessment. Management reported 18% constant currency revenue growth and delivered roughly a 2% revenue beat versus expectations. For fiscal year 2026, HubSpot guided to 16% constant currency growth, a figure TD Cowen described as in line with market forecasts.
TD Cowen pointed to encouraging operating indicators inside HubSpot’s business. The analyst noted an uptick in Net Revenue Retention and stronger Net New Annual Recurring Revenue growth that continues to outpace overall revenue expansion. Those metrics were cited as evidence of healthy underlying subscription dynamics despite the broader share-price weakness.
Nevertheless, the firm flagged uncertainty around HubSpot’s approach to artificial intelligence. TD Cowen characterized AI monetization as "early and not clearly identifiable," saying that investor debate over the timing and path to renewed growth will likely persist until the company outlines a clearer route to re-acceleration.
On valuation, TD Cowen calculated HubSpot trading at about 13 times enterprise value to estimated free cash flow for calendar year 2026, calling the multiple "compelling" but stopping short of a positive rating without clearer signs of growth acceleration.
Other analyst actions
- BMO Capital trimmed its price target to $285 while retaining an Outperform rating.
- Piper Sandler lowered its target to $280 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing reduced software multiples but positive performance trends.
- KeyBanc set a $340 price target and expressed concern that HubSpot’s 16% guidance falls short of a 20% growth objective.
- Needham cut its target to $300 following a strong fourth quarter with 18% revenue growth, while keeping a Buy rating.
- RBC Capital downgraded HubSpot to Sector Perform and lowered its price target to $189, citing worries over growth and potential cost pressures.
According to InvestingPro data cited in coverage, HubSpot appears undervalued on a Fair Value basis. The company’s recent operating signals and valuation multiple present a mixed picture: encouraging retention and ARR trends set against uncertainty over AI-driven monetization and the need for clearer trajectories back to higher growth.
The recent flurry of analyst target adjustments and rating changes reflects differing assessments of whether current metrics and guidance represent a reset or a temporary soft patch until new growth vectors become clearer.
Summary
TD Cowen cut its HubSpot price target to $270 from $370 and kept a Hold rating amid solid revenue growth and retention metrics but persistent uncertainty about how the company will monetize AI. The stock is trading near its 52-week low and is considered undervalued by InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment. Several other brokerages have also revised targets and ratings, signaling varied views on HubSpot’s growth and margin outlook.
Key points
- TD Cowen reduced its price target to $270 and maintained a Hold rating despite positive revenue and retention metrics.
- HubSpot reported 18% constant currency revenue growth, beat revenue expectations by about 2%, and guided to 16% constant currency growth for fiscal 2026.
- Other brokerages have moved targets and ratings in both directions, underscoring divergent views across the software and SaaS analyst community.
Risks and uncertainties
- Unclear AI monetization - TD Cowen described AI monetization as "early and not clearly identifiable," creating uncertainty for investors and the software sector.
- Growth guidance gap - Some analysts highlight that HubSpot’s 16% guidance may fall short of higher growth targets, raising questions about near-term acceleration.
- Cost pressure concerns - At least one firm cited potential cost pressures as a factor in downgrading the stock, a risk for margins in the broader SaaS market.