Susquehanna has shifted its stance on Saia Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA), moving the stock from a Positive rating to Neutral and assigning a price target of $425.00. The new target implies roughly 11% upside from the then-current share price of $381.64, the research firm said.
Susquehanna also noted market indicators that support a more tempered outlook: data from InvestingPro shows Saia's relative strength index sitting in overbought territory following a 35.58% total return over the prior six months.
In its update the firm made a modest reduction to near-term earnings expectations, lowering its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast by $0.15 to $10.35. Susquehanna attributed that adjustment primarily to below-the-line activity, as stated in its research note. The firm left its 2027 EPS estimate unchanged at $6.00, signaling no alteration to its longer-term earnings view.
On valuation, Susquehanna increased the target multiple by 3x to a 33x multiple. The firm observed that this multiple sits at the high end of Saia's prior growth-era trading range from 2020 to 2021 but still remains slightly lower than the multiples applied to peer companies Old Dominion Freight Line and XPO, according to the note.
Susquehanna said that its chosen valuation approach is consistent with Saia's historical tendency to trade at a discount relative to Old Dominion Freight Line. The firm framed the multiple change as a recalibration within that context rather than a full convergence with competitor valuations.
Separately, Saia's fourth-quarter 2025 results painted a mixed picture. The less-than-truckload carrier reported earnings per share of $1.77, missing consensus estimates of $1.90, while revenue came in at $790 million, above the expected $775.64 million.
Analysts responded to the quarter with divergent assessments. BofA Securities moved its price target to $413 and retained a Neutral rating, citing the effect of elevated casualties from prior accidents on earnings. Morgan Stanley cut its rating to Underweight, pointing to valuation concerns despite Saia's relatively upbeat guidance for the first quarter. Stifel trimmed its target to $364, calling attention to the weaker-than-expected quarterly performance.
Those reactions underline the range of views across the sell-side following Saia's results and Susquehanna's update: some firms are focused on valuation and accident-related cost pressure, while others point to revenue outperformance as a counterweight.
For investors and market participants, the combination of a sizable recent price run, a higher target multiple from Susquehanna and mixed earnings results contributes to a more cautious tone from at least one major research provider. The firm’s adjustment concentrates on valuation discipline and a small near-term EPS tweak, while maintaining an unchanged longer-term earnings projection.