Stifel has lowered its price target on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) to $31.00 from $32.00, while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The research house flagged rising capacity in the Caribbean as a near-term headwind for Norwegian's pricing power, even as it described overall demand for Caribbean cruises as holding up.
At the current market price of $22.84, Norwegian carries about 13% potential upside relative to analyst consensus targets, according to InvestingPro data. The shares have also shown renewed momentum recently, recording a 5.7% gain over the last week.
Stifel expects the pricing dynamics to improve once Caribbean capacity returns to more normalized levels - a normalization the firm anticipates in the second half of 2026 and extending into 2027. That recovery in capacity, Stifel says, should permit Norwegian to reassert pricing strength after the nearer-term pressure.
The firm also noted valuation and earnings considerations. Norwegian is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3, a level InvestingPro characterizes as elevated relative to the company’s projected near-term earnings growth.
Looking to company guidance, Stifel believes Norwegian is likely to issue its initial 2026 outlook in late February. The firm expects that the guidance will be oriented toward improvements that occur mainly in the second half of the year - a pattern Stifel sees as similar to the guidance frameworks used by peer Royal Caribbean.
Crucially, Stifel remarked that Norwegian may need to offer investors stronger reassurance compared with Royal Caribbean, given that Royal Caribbean has established a more consistent recent track record of meeting its financial targets. That comparison underpins part of Stifel's caution on near-term execution and investor confidence.
Analyst activity around Norwegian has been active. Barclays downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equalweight and set a price target of $23.00, citing a more balanced risk/reward profile after the share price climbed 24% over the past three months. Jefferies lowered its view from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $20.00, pointing to a delayed deleveraging timeline and a strategic pivot that it views as potentially challenging.
By contrast, Mizuho raised its price target to $32.00 and maintained an Outperform rating, calling the shares attractive, particularly on pullbacks. UBS kept a Neutral rating with a $27.00 price target following Norwegian’s announcement to remove non-commissionable fares for certain upcoming cruises.
On the corporate leadership front, Norwegian named Marc Kazlauskas as President effective January 19, 2026. The company said Kazlauskas brings more than 30 years of experience in the travel industry to the role.
Investors will likely be watching the company's late-February 2026 guidance for confirmation that second-half improvements are achievable and for clarity around deleveraging and fare strategy. For now, the stock sits at a valuation that some analysts see as high relative to near-term growth prospects, while broker views range from Hold/Equalweight to Outperform.