Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

Stifel Sticks With Hold on Crocs After Strong FY26 Guidance, Cites Promotional Tension

Analyst preserves $90 price target despite robust adjusted EPS outlook and margin resilience

By Caleb Monroe CROX
Stifel Sticks With Hold on Crocs After Strong FY26 Guidance, Cites Promotional Tension
CROX

Stifel has kept a Hold rating and a $90.00 price target on Crocs (CROX) after the company issued a stronger-than-expected fiscal 2026 outlook. Crocs' guidance for adjusted EPS of $12.88 to $13.35 and healthy gross margins contrasted with some data showing expected net income weakness this year, leaving the firm to balance valuation appeal against concerns about promotional intensity and revenue trajectory.

Key Points

  • Stifel kept a Hold rating and $90.00 price target on Crocs after the company issued stronger-than-expected FY26 guidance for adjusted EPS of $12.88-$13.35.
  • Crocs beat fourth-quarter revenue estimates by $48 million and reported adjusted EPS that was $0.39 above Stifel’s projections, with the Crocs brand and HEYDUDE contributing $29 million and $19 million, respectively.
  • Despite healthy gross margins (59.08%) and a pre-market implied 7x P/E on FY26E guidance, Stifel cites tension between promotional intensity and revenue growth as a reason to maintain a Hold; sectors affected include consumer discretionary, retail, and footwear manufacturing.

Stifel has reiterated its Hold rating on Crocs Inc. and kept a $90.00 price target following the company’s fiscal 2026 outlook, which the firm characterized as stronger than anticipated. The stock is trading at $98.37, a level cited as materially below InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate and implying potential upside relative to that benchmark.

Crocs provided FY26 guidance calling for adjusted earnings per share in a range of $12.88 to $13.35, which Stifel noted corresponds to 3-7% year-over-year earnings growth. That outlook was ahead of Stifel’s prior expectations, which had projected a year-over-year decline in earnings. The company’s guidance runs counter to InvestingPro data referenced in the company’s reporting showing net income is expected to fall this year.

The company’s fourth-quarter performance contributed to the upbeat tone. Crocs delivered revenue that overshot estimates by $48 million, and the beat fed through to adjusted EPS that exceeded Stifel’s projection by $0.39. The revenue upside was driven by both the Crocs brand, which added $29 million, and HEYDUDE, which contributed $19 million to the outperformance. Crocs also reported a robust gross profit margin of 59.08%, a figure Stifel highlighted as supportive of the company’s financial position.

Looking to FY26, management anticipates adjusted operating margin will expand modestly from the 22.3% reported in FY25. Stifel said it will scrutinize the assumptions underpinning that outlook, particularly the interaction between SG&A leverage and gross margin development. The firm also indicated it will evaluate tariff impacts in North America as part of that review.

On valuation, Stifel described Crocs’ multiple as "intriguing." The pre-market share price implies roughly a 7x price-to-earnings ratio on the company’s FY26E adjusted EPS guidance. Despite that valuation characteristic, Stifel maintained its Hold thesis, emphasizing what it sees as ongoing "tension between promotional intensity and revenue growth."

In other company-reported results, Crocs’ fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 outpaced Wall Street forecasts. The company recorded earnings per share of $2.29 versus an expected $1.91, a 19.9% surprise. Revenue for the quarter came in at $958 million, above the anticipated $916.09 million. For 2026, Crocs projected adjusted EPS of $12.88 to $13.35, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $11.89, and set a revenue outlook ranging from a 1% decline to a marginal increase versus analysts’ projection of a 0.8% drop. These announcements drew visible investor attention, reflected in notable stock reaction following the disclosures.


Conclusion - Stifel’s reaffirmation of a Hold rating and $90 price target reflects a measured reaction to Crocs’ stronger-than-expected FY26 guidance and solid margin profile, tempered by uncertainties around promotional strategies and revenue momentum that the firm intends to monitor closely.

Risks

  • Promotional intensity could pressure margins or alter revenue growth dynamics - this risk impacts retail and branded consumer products.
  • Tariff developments in North America could affect gross margin development and overall operating leverage - a risk to supply chain and cost structures in footwear and apparel.
  • Net income is expected to decline this year according to InvestingPro data, introducing near-term earnings uncertainty despite FY26 guidance - this affects investor sentiment in consumer discretionary stocks.

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