Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Stifel Sticks With Buy on ONEOK, $94 Target as Mixed Q4 Results and Dividend Raise Draw Attention

Analyst outlooks diverge after ONEOK reports Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA slightly below estimates and announces a modest dividend increase and board appointments

By Caleb Monroe OKE
Stifel Sticks With Buy on ONEOK, $94 Target as Mixed Q4 Results and Dividend Raise Draw Attention
OKE

Stifel retained its Buy rating on ONEOK Inc. and left its price target at $94, even as the company's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA came in a touch below both Stifel's internal forecast and the consensus. The quarter showed uneven segment performance, a 4% dividend increase, and fresh board appointments. Other broker actions and differing EBITDA growth expectations underline a range of market views on the midstream operator.

Key Points

  • Stifel maintained a Buy rating on ONEOK with a $94.00 price target despite Q4 adjusted EBITDA slightly below expectations.
  • ONEOK reported Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.15 billion versus Stifels $2.17 billion estimate and the $2.16 billion consensus; segment performance was mixed.
  • The company raised its quarterly dividend by 4% to $1.07 per share, announced two independent director appointments, and saw varied analyst reactions from Mizuho, JPMorgan, and Jefferies.

Stifel has maintained a Buy recommendation on ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) and reaffirmed a $94.00 price target, according to the firms most recent rating. The call comes as the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.15 billion, which was marginally under Stifels $2.17 billion estimate and below the $2.16 billion consensus figure.

The quarter displayed a mixed operational picture. Gas Pipelines and Refined Products segments performed better than expected, while NGLs and G&P segments underperformed. The companys adjusted EBITDA result was therefore slightly short of some forecasts despite stronger outcomes in parts of its business.

ONEOK declared a quarterly dividend of $1.07 per share, a 4% increase from the prior quarter, which annualizes to $4.28 per share and represents a current yield of 4.9% at recent prices. The company has paid dividends for 56 consecutive years. The declared quarterly distribution is scheduled to be paid on February 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 2, 2026.

At the time Stifel issued its rating, ONEOK shares were trading at $87.33. Independent research notes indicate the stock appears undervalued at current levels, with a fair value estimate implying potential upside from the trading price.

Corporate governance updates accompanied the financial release. ONEOK appointed Mark A. McCollum and Precious Williams Owodunni as independent directors to its board, with their appointments taking effect January 23, 2026.

Recent analyst activity highlights divergent perspectives across the brokerage community. Mizuho increased its price target on ONEOK to $89 while maintaining a Neutral rating and adjusting its 2025-2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates. JPMorgan moved in the opposite direction on recommendation, downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral and cutting its price target to $83, citing concerns about the companys growth trajectory and noting that recent results fell short of EBITDA guidance. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Hold rating and set a $80 price target, forecasting an adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate of roughly 3.7% from 2025 to 2030, a pace the firm said is below the peer average.

These varied analyst actions reflect differing assessments of ONEOKs near-term performance and longer-term growth prospects in the midstream energy sector. While some firms see the current share price as offering upside relative to fair value, others have tempered expectations based on recent results and projected EBITDA growth rates.


Sectors affected: Energy, Utilities, Midstream Infrastructure.

Risks

  • ONEOKs adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 came in slightly below both Stifels estimate and the consensus, creating near-term earnings risk for investor expectations - impacts the energy and midstream sectors.
  • Analyst downgrades and lowered price targets driven by concerns about the companys growth trajectory and recent results missing EBITDA guidance introduce valuation and sentiment uncertainty - relevant to equity investors in energy and utilities.
  • Projected adjusted EBITDA growth rates that fall below peer averages, as noted by at least one brokerage, pose a risk to medium-term performance and relative competitiveness in midstream infrastructure.

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