Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Stifel Sticks With Buy on Domino's, Citing Market Share Momentum

Analyst keeps $485 target after Domino's posts stronger-than-expected U.S. comps and solid top-line and EBITDA beats

By Caleb Monroe DPZ
Stifel Sticks With Buy on Domino's, Citing Market Share Momentum
DPZ

Stifel reaffirmed its Buy rating and $485.00 price target on Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) after the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results, pointing to continued market share gains and scale advantages. Domino's beat Stifel's comp forecast and posted revenue and EBITDA above consensus, while analysts remain divided on forward visibility and longer-term comparable sales trends.

Key Points

  • Stifel reiterated a Buy rating and set a $485.00 price target on Domino's Pizza following Q4 2025 results.
  • Domino's posted U.S. comparable sales growth of 3.7%, beating Stifel's 3.0% estimate and the Street consensus of 3.2%; global unit growth was roughly in line with expectations.
  • Revenue of $1.54 billion and EBITDA of $323 million both topped consensus estimates, while analysts remain split on future visibility and comparable sales for the back half of 2026.

Stifel has maintained a Buy rating and a $485.00 price objective on Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) following the chain's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. The firm highlighted results that it says support Domino's position to expand share within a segment Stifel expects to grow roughly 1% to 2% annually.

Domino's reported domestic comparable sales growth of 3.7% for the quarter, outpacing Stifel's own forecast of 3.0% and the broader Street consensus of 3.2%. Global unit growth was reported as roughly in line with expectations.

The company recorded diluted earnings per share of $5.35, versus Stifel's estimate of $5.39. Stifel noted that, on an underlying basis and excluding an unfavorable change tied to the DPC Dash investment, earnings outperformed its projection by about $0.20.

On the top line, Domino's delivered revenue of $1.54 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, above the consensus estimate of $1.52 billion. Adjusted EBITDA also surpassed expectations, at $323 million compared with the anticipated $320 million.

Market metrics show the stock trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.07 and a market capitalization of $13.94 billion. An InvestingPro analysis cited in the report indicated that eight analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for the forthcoming period, while the company posted a Piotroski Score of 9, a metric that signals strong financial health in the assessment provided.


Management and analyst takeaways

Company management expressed confidence in Domino's ability to sustainably capture market share, relying on the brand's scale and a slate of existing multi-year initiatives. Stifel emphasized that these initiatives, together with new product and value innovations, have the potential to generate compounding sales growth over time. The firm also said Domino's scale advantages should be amplified even amid a stable but challenging consumer environment.

Other broker activity accompanying the results reflected a range of views. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating and kept its $540 price target. BTIG held a $500 price target, calling out U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.0% that matched its internal target and exceeded analyst expectations. Evercore ISI increased its price target to $510, citing steady U.S. market share gains. By contrast, Bernstein trimmed its price target to $470 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, and BMO Capital reduced its target to $500, pointing to limited visibility on comparable sales for the second half of 2026.


Context for investors

The mix of analyst reactions underscores differing views on forward visibility and how persistent Domino's comp momentum will be as promotional dynamics and consumer behavior evolve. While several firms have retained Buy stances and higher targets, others have pulled back forecasts or flagged uncertainty on comparable sales in the medium term.

Investors tracking Domino's will likely weigh the recent comp and margin beats alongside the company's strategic initiatives and how sustained market share gains interact with broader demand conditions.

Risks

  • Limited visibility on comparable sales for the second half of 2026, as cited by BMO Capital and others - this affects consumer discretionary and restaurant sector forecasts.
  • Some analysts have reduced earnings estimates and price targets, reflecting uncertainty over sustained comp momentum and the competitive environment - this impacts investor expectations for branded quick-service operator stocks.
  • A stable but challenging consumer backdrop could pressure unit economics and same-store sales, potentially eroding margin expansion assumptions in restaurant and foodservice valuations.

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