Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Stifel Sticks With Buy on CAVA Ahead of Q4 Results; Analyst Sees Unit-Led Growth

Firm keeps $75 price target as it forecasts unit expansion, menu work and digital optimization to drive 2026 revenue and EBITDA gains

By Derek Hwang CAVA
Stifel Sticks With Buy on CAVA Ahead of Q4 Results; Analyst Sees Unit-Led Growth
CAVA

Stifel has reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $75.00 price target on CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report due February 24. The analyst house expects results to meet or beat consensus and projects 2026 growth powered primarily by unit expansion, menu innovation and expanded marketing. Stifel also flagged improvements in digital ordering, delivery and service execution as potential upside for comparable sales and reiterated an upward bias to 2026 EBITDA estimates despite possible modest margin compression.

Key Points

  • Stifel reaffirmed a Buy rating and $75.00 price target on CAVA ahead of Q4 results due February 24.
  • The analyst expects 2026 growth to be driven by unit expansion, menu innovation, broader marketing, and digital ordering and delivery improvements.
  • CAVA recorded 23.93% revenue growth over the past twelve months and Stifel maintains an upward bias to 2026 EBITDA estimates despite potential modest margin contraction.

Stifel has maintained its Buy rating and $75.00 price objective on CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) as investors await the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release, scheduled for February 24. The stock was trading at $68.55 at the time of the note, which places it below Stifel’s target but above InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate - a juxtaposition the analyst said could indicate the market is pricing some premium despite the firm’s continued optimism.

In its outlook, Stifel said it expects CAVA’s fourth-quarter results to at least match Street estimates. The firm identifies unit growth, ongoing menu innovation and broader marketing programs as the primary levers for 2026 revenue expansion. Stifel pointed to a strong recent top-line performance, noting CAVA’s 23.93% revenue growth over the past twelve months as supportive of a constructive outlook.

Management discussions and the analyst’s checks led Stifel to believe comparable-store sales could exceed the current Street projection of 2.9% for 2026. The firm highlighted several operational opportunities that could lift comps, including optimization of digital ordering and delivery channels along with improvements in service speed and order accuracy.

On profitability, Stifel expects EBITDA to grow in the high-teens and sees robust returns from new units, while acknowledging the potential for modest margin contraction. Despite that risk, the firm maintained an upward bias in its 2026 EBITDA estimates, reflecting confidence in unit economics and revenue mix improvements.

The analyst emphasized that investments tied to CAVA’s AGM program will be important to sustain mid- to high-teens unit growth going forward. Those investments were characterized as necessary to support the company’s expansion cadence and associated returns.

Corporate developments were also noted in the firm’s note. CAVA appointed Doug Thompson as Chief Operations Officer effective March 2. Thompson joins from Texas Roadhouse and will be responsible for restaurant operations and field teams, a role the analyst framed as complementary to the company’s expansion and operational-improvement initiatives.

Stifel’s reiteration occurred amid a range of peer analyst moves. TD Cowen raised its price target on CAVA to $72 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing the chain’s ability to meet future sales forecasts alongside peers. Bernstein trimmed its price target to $75 but kept an Outperform rating, pointing to expected tough comparisons that could limit investor interest until the latter half of 2026. Stifel reiterated its Buy and $75 target, citing management conversations about future sales drivers and noting healthy underlying demand despite recent sales softness.

The note also referenced activity elsewhere in the restaurant space: Telsey Advisory Group initiated coverage on Chipotle Mexican Grill with an Outperform rating, a move made against a backdrop of industry headwinds tied to economic uncertainty and shifting consumer dining patterns.


What to watch next - CAVA’s fourth-quarter print on February 24 will provide clarity on whether the company meets Stifel’s expectations for comps and whether investments in operations and digital channels are translating into the revenue and EBITDA trends the firm models for 2026.

Risks

  • Potential modest margin contraction could temper profitability even if revenue grows - impacts restaurant margins and investor returns.
  • Tough year-over-year comparisons noted by Bernstein may limit investor interest until the back half of 2026 - affects near-term sentiment in the restaurant sector.
  • Broader economic uncertainty affecting consumer dining habits could weigh on sales, a factor highlighted by coverage activity in the wider restaurant industry.

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