Stifel left its Buy recommendation and $13.00 target unchanged for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (NYSE: AESI) following the company’s latest quarterly report. At the time of the analyst note, the stock was trading at $10.41, below Stifel’s target and also under InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate of $13.45, a gap the note described as suggestive of potential undervaluation relative to those benchmarks.
In its review of the fourth quarter, Stifel highlighted that Atlas Energy Solutions’ revenue for the period exceeded the firm’s projection by 14.2% and topped consensus estimates by 3.8%. The upside was attributed to lower-than-expected seasonality. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter also outperformed expectations, coming in 38% above Stifel’s estimate and 30% ahead of consensus.
Despite the company’s quarterly outperformance, InvestingPro Tips noted that analysts do not expect Atlas Energy Solutions to be profitable this year. On a trailing-12-month basis the company recorded an EBITDA of $223 million on revenue of $1.12 billion.
Management provided an updated cadence for the company’s growing power generation business, outlining a clear line of sight to 500 megawatts of power by 2027, up from a prior view of 400 megawatts. The company said it is pursuing a pipeline of opportunities that includes contracts with terms ranging from five to 15 years, and that it remains engaged in several commercial discussions.
Operationally, Atlas Energy Solutions indicated continued share gains in the frac sand market and said it expects to have more than 10 million tons on the Dune Express in 2026. For volumes, the company reported steady fourth-quarter tonnage of 5.3 million.
On guidance, Atlas Energy Solutions issued first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance described as flat sequentially, implying roughly $37 million. That figure compares with Stifel’s pre-release expectation of $39 million and a consensus view of $41 million. The company noted that guidance reflects an estimated $6 million negative impact from weather; excluding that estimated weather effect, guidance would exceed consensus.
The company held a conference call with investors on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. For subscribers seeking further analysis, AESI’s Pro Research Report is available on InvestingPro as one of the platform’s research offerings, which the note says synthesizes Wall Street data into actionable intelligence.
In the operational results the company reported a mixed set of quarter-specific metrics. It recorded a loss of $0.18 per share, which fell short of analyst estimates of $1.05 per share. Revenue for the quarter came in at $249.9 million, above the anticipated $231.1 million. That revenue figure represented a 3.9% decline sequentially from the prior quarter, but on a year-over-year basis the company reported a 3.7% increase for full-year 2025, with annual revenue reaching $1.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was reported at $36.7 million. Management framed these results in the context of continued emphasis on expanding the company’s power generation activities.
Where this matters: The data points in the quarter touch the energy services sector directly, with implications for supply chain logistics in frac sand markets and the evolving power generation segment within the company. Market participants monitoring analyst coverage, valuation benchmarks, and the company’s multi-year contract pipeline will find the updated guidance and capacity outlook relevant.