Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Stifel Sticks With Amazon Buy Rating, Weighs Heavy 2026 Capex in Models

Analyst keeps $300 target after strong Q4 results and AWS momentum, while multiple firms flag 2026 spending as a major uncertainty

By Jordan Park AMZN
Stifel Sticks With Amazon Buy Rating, Weighs Heavy 2026 Capex in Models
AMZN

Stifel reiterated a Buy rating and a $300.00 price target on Amazon.com (AMZN) after the company delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The firm incorporated Amazon's aggressive 2026 capital expenditure guidance into its forecasts but still cited several durable positives, including accelerating AWS growth, improving North America margins, growing AWS backlog and rising custom silicon revenue. Other brokerages trimmed price targets amid capex concerns while generally keeping favorable ratings.

Key Points

  • Stifel reiterated a Buy rating and $300.00 price target for AMZN after a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter report, keeping Amazon among its top picks.
  • Management forecast roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, about 150% higher year-over-year, which Stifel incorporated into its estimates.
  • Positive operational indicators cited include custom silicon surpassing a $10 billion annual run-rate, an expected 2027 ship date for next-generation Trainium, a 38% year-over-year increase in AWS backlog, and a 100 basis point expansion in North America operating margins.

Stifel left its Buy rating and $300.00 price target on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) unchanged following the company's fourth-quarter report and subsequent guidance. The research house highlighted revenue that topped estimates and pointed to multiple operational strengths even as management set ambitious spending plans for 2026.

In its note, Stifel emphasized Amazon's fourth-quarter performance, where overall revenue beat expectations and Amazon Web Services showed material acceleration. AWS growth accelerated by 400 basis points versus prior pacing and outperformed consensus, a result Stifel attributed in part to increased demand from both AI and traditional workloads. Advertising was also described as slightly healthier than recent trends suggested.

Amazon's first-quarter outlook was characterized as somewhat soft by Stifel, in part because company guidance includes an incremental $1 billion in Leo-related costs year-over-year. Management also signaled sharply higher capital expenditures for 2026, forecasting approximately $200 billion in capex, which the firm noted equates to roughly 150% year-over-year growth.

Despite incorporating the heavier spending into its models, Stifel pointed to a set of constructive metrics supporting its continued positive stance. The firm called out custom silicon as achieving a run-rate greater than $10 billion annually, and highlighted that next-generation Trainium is expected to begin shipping in 2027. AWS backlog rose 38% year-over-year, and North America operating margins continued to widen, expanding by 100 basis points.

After adjusting estimates to reflect the elevated 2026 spending plans, Stifel maintained its $300 price target and reiterated Amazon as one of its top picks, recommending accumulation at prevailing prices.

Other brokerages reacted to Amazon's aggressive capex guidance with a mix of lowered price targets and sustained positive ratings. Cantor Fitzgerald trimmed its target to $250 while retaining an Overweight rating. Scotiabank reduced its target to $275 and kept a Sector Outperform rating. TD Cowen moved its target to $300 and maintained a Buy rating. RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating, praising AWS performance but noting capex concerns. Telsey Advisory Group kept an Outperform rating with a $300 target, citing ongoing growth opportunities across Amazon's businesses.

Amazon's fourth-quarter results showed revenue approximately 1% above analyst expectations and EBIT coming in about 9% higher than forecast. AWS revenue grew 24% year-over-year, a figure Stifel and others linked to contributions from AI workloads as well as non-AI demand. The combination of stronger-than-expected near-term results and a large, upfront spending plan for 2026 has left analysts balancing operational momentum against elevated investment levels.

Risks

  • Elevated capital spending in 2026 presents execution and cash allocation risks for Amazon, with potential implications for technology and infrastructure investment dynamics in the cloud and retail sectors.
  • Near-term guidance includes an added $1 billion in Leo-related costs year-over-year, introducing uncertainty to quarterly margin and expense profiles that affect the technology and advertising segments.
  • Wider industry reactions to higher capex, reflected in several firms lowering price targets, underscore market sensitivity to large spending plans and the potential for valuation pressure in the broader tech and cloud infrastructure markets.

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