Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Stifel Lowers Pool Corp Price Target After Q4 Miss, Keeps Hold Rating

Analyst trims estimates following weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and cautious FY26 guidance

By Marcus Reed POOL
Stifel Lowers Pool Corp Price Target After Q4 Miss, Keeps Hold Rating
POOL

Stifel reduced its price objective for Pool Corporation to $232 from $240 while maintaining a Hold rating after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that missed forecasts and issued initial fiscal 2026 guidance below the consensus low. The stock plunged 13.2% on the news, narrowing its valuation gap with peers as the firm flagged persistent headwinds from Heritage's expansion and adjusted its estimates ahead of Hayward's fourth-quarter report.

Key Points

  • Stifel cut its Pool Corp price target to $232 from $240 and kept a Hold rating after lowering estimates.
  • Pool Corp reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.84 versus a $0.98 estimate (-14.29% surprise) and revenue of $982.2 million versus $999.27 million expected (-1.71% shortfall).
  • Shares fell 13.2% on the results while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, moving Pool's valuation toward parity with peers.

Stifel has lowered its price target on Pool Corporation (NASDAQ: POOL) to $232, down from $240, while retaining a Hold recommendation on the shares.

The change follows Pool Corp's fourth-quarter 2025 results, which the firm said came in below expectations for what it characterized as a stable category. Stifel also noted that the company's initial fiscal year 2026 guidance arrived below the low end of consensus estimates, prompting the analyst to reduce its forecasts and the target price.

Market reaction was swift. Pool Corp shares dropped 13.2% after the earnings announcement, a move that contrasted with a 0.4% gain in the S&P 500 over the same period. Stifel observed that the share decline brought Pool's valuation roughly into parity with its peers.

In its commentary, Stifel highlighted several attributes that support the stock's profile, including a stable earnings stream, a consistent return-of-cash policy, and what it described as a historically inexpensive valuation. The firm also acknowledged Pool Corp's potential in a normalized operating environment.

At the same time, Stifel cautioned about uncertainty over when and how large any business inflection might be, pointing to sustained headwinds from Heritage's aggressive expansion efforts as a key concern. The analyst said it adjusted estimates in advance of Hayward's fourth-quarter 2025 results.

Pool Corporation's own published results for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed diluted earnings per share of $0.84, below the analysts' forecast of $0.98 - a negative surprise of 14.29%. Quarterly revenue totaled $982.2 million, missing the expected $999.27 million and representing a 1.71% shortfall versus consensus.

The company reported these results following a pre-market decline in its stock, although specific intraday price movements tied to the announcement were not detailed. The variances between actual results and consensus estimates have drawn attention from market participants and analysts following the company.


Contextual note: The updates from Stifel and Pool Corporation reflect both the immediate market response to quarterly results and the analyst firm's effort to recalibrate expectations in light of near-term guidance and competitive pressures.

Risks

  • Uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of any business inflection due to persistent headwinds from Heritage's aggressive expansion - this affects investor expectations and valuation.
  • Initial fiscal 2026 guidance came in below consensus low estimates, introducing downside risk to near-term earnings and revenues.
  • Market reaction to disappointing quarterly results and guidance has already driven a significant share price decline, which could pressure sentiment among equity investors and analysts.

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