Stifel has lowered its price target on Pool Corporation (NASDAQ: POOL) to $232, down from $240, while retaining a Hold recommendation on the shares.
The change follows Pool Corp's fourth-quarter 2025 results, which the firm said came in below expectations for what it characterized as a stable category. Stifel also noted that the company's initial fiscal year 2026 guidance arrived below the low end of consensus estimates, prompting the analyst to reduce its forecasts and the target price.
Market reaction was swift. Pool Corp shares dropped 13.2% after the earnings announcement, a move that contrasted with a 0.4% gain in the S&P 500 over the same period. Stifel observed that the share decline brought Pool's valuation roughly into parity with its peers.
In its commentary, Stifel highlighted several attributes that support the stock's profile, including a stable earnings stream, a consistent return-of-cash policy, and what it described as a historically inexpensive valuation. The firm also acknowledged Pool Corp's potential in a normalized operating environment.
At the same time, Stifel cautioned about uncertainty over when and how large any business inflection might be, pointing to sustained headwinds from Heritage's aggressive expansion efforts as a key concern. The analyst said it adjusted estimates in advance of Hayward's fourth-quarter 2025 results.
Pool Corporation's own published results for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed diluted earnings per share of $0.84, below the analysts' forecast of $0.98 - a negative surprise of 14.29%. Quarterly revenue totaled $982.2 million, missing the expected $999.27 million and representing a 1.71% shortfall versus consensus.
The company reported these results following a pre-market decline in its stock, although specific intraday price movements tied to the announcement were not detailed. The variances between actual results and consensus estimates have drawn attention from market participants and analysts following the company.
Contextual note: The updates from Stifel and Pool Corporation reflect both the immediate market response to quarterly results and the analyst firm's effort to recalibrate expectations in light of near-term guidance and competitive pressures.