Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Stifel Lowers Leidos Price Target Citing VA Contract Concerns; RBC Also Trims Target

Analysts flag strengths in bookings and EPS but point to near-term headwinds from Veterans Affairs contracts and AI-related risks

By Nina Shah LDOS
Stifel Lowers Leidos Price Target Citing VA Contract Concerns; RBC Also Trims Target
LDOS

Stifel reduced its 12-month price target for Leidos Holdings to $205 from $220 while keeping a Hold rating, citing investor concern over key Veterans Affairs disability exam contracts and AI disruption. The company posted a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter on EBITDA and showed solid book-to-bill metrics, but revenue in the quarter missed forecasts. RBC Capital retained an Outperform rating but lowered its target to $215 from $230 following mixed results.

Key Points

  • Stifel cut Leidos’ price target to $205 from $220 and maintained a Hold rating, citing concerns about VA disability exam contracts and AI disruption - impacts concentrated in defense and government services sectors.
  • Leidos beat EBITDA expectations by 3.5% in Q4 and posted a book-to-bill of 1.3x for the quarter, with book-to-bill exceeding 1.0x for 2025, signaling healthy backlog dynamics for services operations.
  • RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating but reduced its price target to $215 from $230 after mixed Q4 results: EPS beat at $2.76, revenue missed at $4.23 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margins were 13.2% - relevant for investors in aerospace, defense, and IT services stocks.

Stifel has trimmed its price objective on Leidos Holdings (NYSE: LDOS) to $205 from $220 while maintaining a Hold recommendation, according to the firm. The downgrade in target comes amid analyst concerns about the company’s exposure to specific Veterans Affairs disability exam contracts and broader worries about AI-related disruption in services.

Analyst Jonathan Siegmann at Stifel reviewed Leidos’ fourth-quarter performance, noting that adjusted EBITDA outpaced his estimate by roughly 3.5%. Leidos also delivered a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x in the fourth quarter, and the company reported that its book-to-bill exceeded 1.0x for 2025 overall - figures that Siegmann described as notable given recent turbulence across services firms.

Guidance for fiscal 2026 landed at a midpoint that the analyst characterized as either in line with or modestly below consensus expectations prior to the earnings release, which Stifel views as a beatable threshold. Despite those operational positives, Stifel sees potential near-term pressure on the shares driven primarily by investor uncertainty about the company’s VA disability exam contracts. The firm also points to worries around AI disruption as an additional dampener on sentiment.

In light of these factors, Stifel indicated a preference to recommend other names within the sector for the time being.


Separately, Leidos reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat on earnings per share but missed on revenue. The company posted EPS of $2.76 versus an expected $2.60, a surprise of 6.15%. Revenue for the quarter was $4.23 billion, short of the $4.31 billion analysts had anticipated by about 1.86%.

RBC Capital responded to the earnings by keeping an Outperform rating on Leidos but lowering its price target to $215 from $230. RBC noted the mixed nature of the quarter: reported revenues near $4.2 billion that represent a 4% decline on a reported basis but a 4% increase when certain items are excluded. Adjusted EBITDA margins were cited at 13.2%.

Taken together, the analyst commentary and the company’s reported results paint a picture of operational resilience in some metrics - notably EBITDA and book-to-bill - alongside revenue pressures and contract-specific risks that are weighing on near-term sentiment among institutional analysts.

Risks

  • Contract concentration risk tied to Veterans Affairs disability exam agreements - potential near-term revenue and execution implications for government services providers.
  • Market and technology disruption risk from artificial intelligence concerns, which could affect future service delivery models and investor expectations across IT and defense contracting firms.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026