Stifel has reworked its valuation for Genius Sports Ltd. (NYSE: GENI), lowering the firm’s price target to $7.00 from $10.00 while maintaining a Hold recommendation. The firm’s update arrives amid fresh scrutiny of Genius Sports’ purchase of Legend and after Stifel completed a series of checks with competitors and customers over the prior two weeks.
At the time of the update, GENI was trading around $6.30. InvestingPro analysis referenced by market commentary characterizes the stock as undervalued and notes the shares’ relative strength index (RSI) sits in oversold territory following a decline of more than 50% over the past six months.
The analyst revision follows a public letter that Genius Sports issued to shareholders defending its acquisition of Legend - described by the company as an AI-exposed affiliate business - for in excess of $900 million. In that communication, management disputed investor concerns that the transaction represented an overpayment.
Stifel said its updated model now explicitly incorporates the deal after observing a roughly 30% correction in the stock over the preceding three months. The firm reported that its valuation work - which focused on the existing revenue-share annuity tied to Legend - indicates the market is already pricing in the revenue synergies management highlighted, as well as standalone momentum at Legend. Those conclusions were informed by the recent competitor and customer checks.
While Stifel noted generally positive feedback from its conversations, the firm flagged a persistent, hard-to-disprove worry among market participants: the potential impact of AI on Legend’s user engagement. That concern, Stifel said, creates meaningful near-term headline risk and limits the visibility of catalysts until mid-2026.
Despite these near-term concerns and the rework of modeling assumptions around the Legend transaction, InvestingPro-sourced data shows that Genius Sports delivered 30.7% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Analysts cited in the same data set expect continued sales growth for the company this year. Investors were pointed to a Pro Research Report ahead of GENI’s next earnings release, scheduled for March 6.
Other broker responses since the Legend transaction was disclosed reflect a range of views on valuation and leverage. The acquisition structure announced by Genius Sports calls for up to $1.2 billion in consideration, with $900 million payable at closing comprised of $800 million in cash and $100 million in stock. The deal is financed in part by an $850 million Term Loan B.
In the rounds of subsequent analyst moves, Guggenheim lowered its target to $12.00 from $17.00 but retained a Buy rating. Citizens cut its price objective to $11.00 from $17.00 and remained at Market Outperform, citing concerns about the leverage assumed for the acquisition. By contrast, Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $15.00 target after discussions with Genius Sports’ management, and pointed to potential upside in prediction markets as one area of opportunity.
Alongside the corporate finance and rating activity, Genius Sports has continued product and partnership rollouts. The company launched its BetVision platform for tennis at the Australian Open, integrating live streams, betslips and official match statistics. It also entered a partnership with WPP Media to create a sports marketing intelligence offering called the WPP Brand Sports Momentum Score, leveraging Genius Sports’ consumer dataset to aim at optimizing brand investments in sports marketing.
Taken together, the rating adjustments, financing structure and product initiatives illustrate how investor attention is split between near-term deal-related risk - including AI-driven engagement questions and increased leverage - and the company’s continued revenue growth and product expansion efforts.