Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Stifel Lowers Equifax Price Target to $235, Flags Margin Pressure from FICO

Analyst keeps Buy rating as company posts modest outperformance in Q4 2025; margin dynamics and competitive scoring tests weigh on outlook

By Maya Rios EFX
Stifel Lowers Equifax Price Target to $235, Flags Margin Pressure from FICO
EFX

Stifel reduced its 12-month price target on Equifax to $235 from $253 while retaining a Buy rating, citing the potential for margin dilution tied to FICO’s planned price increase and Equifax’s decision not to pass that increase through to mortgage report customers. The company reported modest beats in fourth-quarter 2025 results and continues to derive the majority of revenue from proprietary data, but competitive and pricing dynamics in the mortgage channel remain key near-term considerations.

Key Points

  • Stifel cut Equifax's price target to $235 from $253 but maintained a Buy rating; the stock trades near $193.67 and has recently shown oversold technical readings after a 5.16% one-week decline - impact on equity markets and investor sentiment.
  • Primary concern is margin dilution from FICO’s planned 100% price increase in 2026 while Equifax is not raising prices for credit reports sold to the mortgage vertical - impacts mortgage lending and credit reporting economics.
  • Equifax retains strong gross margins (56.45%) and derives roughly 90% of revenue from proprietary data; the company beat Q4 2025 EPS ($2.09) and revenue ($1.55 billion) expectations, reinforcing resilience in its core data business - relevant to financial services and data providers.

Stifel has trimmed its price target for Equifax to $235.00 from $253.00 while leaving its recommendation at Buy, according to a research note. The stock is trading around $193.67, and recent market data indicate the technical RSI has moved into oversold territory after a 5.16% decline over the past week.

The change in Stifel’s outlook is driven primarily by concerns over margin dilution stemming from pricing actions by FICO. Stifel noted that Equifax is not increasing the prices it charges for credit reports sold into the mortgage vertical, even though FICO plans a 100% price increase in 2026. That dynamic creates the risk that Equifax could face compressed margins if it absorbs higher input costs rather than passing them to mortgage customers.

Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum suggested the choice not to raise mortgage-report prices may be politically motivated - with Equifax potentially aiming to show that any increase in mortgage processing costs is the result of FICO’s planned price hikes rather than Equifax’s actions. The research note framed this as a strategic decision that could preserve customer relationships but weigh on near-term profitability.

Despite the pricing headwinds, Equifax’s underlying profitability remains notable. Gross profit margins sit at 56.45%, and the company trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 34. Management continues to emphasize the defensive characteristics of the business: roughly 90% of revenue is derived from proprietary data, which management believes offers protection against AI disruption due to the proprietary nature of the data and significant regulatory barriers.

On the competitive front, Stifel’s note highlighted that more than 200 lenders are either testing or using the free VantageScore with Equifax. Stifel added that similar testing activity is likely occurring at TransUnion and Experian, though not necessarily with the same lender clients. This suggests active evaluation across the mortgage ecosystem that could influence market share and pricing dynamics in that vertical.

Additional company metrics cited include a long record of shareholder distributions and recent operating results. Data show Equifax has paid dividends for 55 consecutive years and yields approximately 1.05% at current levels. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Equifax reported earnings per share of $2.09, beating the consensus forecast of $2.05, and revenue of $1.55 billion versus an expected $1.53 billion.

Strategic partnerships and analyst coverage shifts were also noted. Equifax and Gen Digital have expanded a partnership intended to enhance consumer financial services: Gen will use Equifax data to support identity protection and financial wellness products, while Equifax will use Gen’s Engine platform to deliver more personalized financial-product recommendations. Separately, RBC Capital lowered its price target to $222 from $250 but maintained an Outperform rating, citing expectations that Equifax’s Online Brand Building Business will accelerate revenue in the Verification and Government segments in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027.


Taken together, the research notes and company disclosures portray a firm with solid underlying margins and recurring revenue, but one navigating pricing friction in a key channel and ongoing competitive testing of scoring alternatives.

Risks

  • Margin pressure if Equifax continues to absorb FICO’s planned price increases rather than passing costs to mortgage-report customers - affects profitability in the credit reporting and mortgage servicing sectors.
  • Competitive shifts as over 200 lenders test or use VantageScore and similar testing at peers could alter pricing leverage and market share in the mortgage channel - impacts lenders, credit bureaus, and scoring providers.
  • Execution risk tied to expectations around revenue acceleration from Equifax’s Online Brand Building Business in Verification and Government sectors in late 2026 into 2027, as cited by RBC Capital - affects revenue growth forecasts for verification and government services.

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