Stifel has cut its 12-month price target on Brightstar Lottery PLC stock to $20 from $21 while maintaining a Buy rating, the firm said on Wednesday. The company’s shares are trading at $13.58, close to a 52-week low of $13.30, a gap Stifel views as leaving room for upside under its revised assumptions.
The brokerage said it updated its internal model in advance of Brightstar’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, which is scheduled for February 24. The adjustments reflect a recent Powerball jackpot sequence and favorable foreign exchange movement that provided temporary revenue support, balanced against a softer trend in core North American same-store sales when excluding jackpot effects.
Stifel’s proprietary FOIA-based U.S. lottery sales tracker indicated quarter-over-quarter softening in the core same-store sales percentage, with results down in the low-single-digit range year-over-year. That pattern contrasts with Brightstar’s guidance for a content-driven ramp back to historical low-single-digit to mid-single-digit growth rates.
The brokerage noted that the observed softening is largely attributable to jackpot fatigue and the timing of content releases. Stifel also highlighted the possibility that constrained spending among lower-income consumers could be contributing to the weaker core metrics. While lottery demand is frequently described as resilient, Stifel suggested it can act as an early indicator of consumer behavior because of the product’s low price point and the limited scope for immediate consumer trade-down.
Despite the near-term softening in same-store sales, Stifel retained a favorable long-term view on Brightstar. The firm cited an attractive valuation of roughly 11 times estimated normalized free cash flow for 2027, consensus estimates for fiscal 2026 that it deems reasonable, several growth tailwinds, and the company’s return-of-capital initiatives as reasons for maintaining its Buy stance.
Brightstar currently yields 6.48% in dividends, and analyst price targets on the stock span from $16 to $28, with a consensus recommendation of Buy. Ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings, a detailed research report on BRSL is available that provides deeper financial analysis and context within a wider coverage universe.
Recent commercial and operational developments
In addition to the sales and model commentary, Brightstar has announced multiple material contracts and technology deployments across its markets. Key commercial wins and initiatives disclosed by the company include:
- An eight-year contract to supply its OMNIA integrated lottery solution to the Wisconsin Lottery, with options for potential extensions.
- A six-year agreement through a subsidiary to provide instant ticket printing and associated services to the California Lottery.
- A European arrangement with Poland’s national lottery, Totalizator Sportowy, to supply instant ticket games and product innovations.
- Deployment of the company’s Sales Wizard automation tool at the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation to support data-driven retail visit planning and to enhance sales effectiveness.
- A share repurchase disclosure indicating Brightstar repurchased 1.44 million shares under its existing $500 million buyback program.
Management’s commercial momentum and capital return activity are cited as elements supporting Stifel’s constructive stance despite near-term operational headwinds.
What comes next
Investors will be watching the company’s February 24 earnings release for confirmation of the magnitude and drivers of the core same-store sales slowdown and for management commentary regarding the durability of recent contract wins and technology rollouts. The brokerage’s model changes suggest sensitivity to jackpot cycles and content timing, and the market will likely focus on whether the company can sustain the return-to-growth trajectory implied by its guidance.