Analyst action and current trading
Stifel has reduced its price target on Blackbaud (NASDAQ:BLKB) to $50.00 from $70.00 and kept a Hold rating on the shares. As reported, the stock is trading at $46.08, close to its 52-week low of $45.81, and has fallen 39.5% over the past year according to InvestingPro data. The firm attributes its valuation change to multiple compression within the software sector, despite Blackbaud’s recent operating results.
Company performance and momentum
Blackbaud closed out 2025 with what Stifel described as "another clean print," driven by transactional strength in the quarter. The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.19, ahead of the $1.14 expected, representing a 4.39% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter came in at $295.3 million, slightly above the $292.17 million forecast. The earnings and revenue beat contributed to a notable pre-market uptick in the stock price following the results.
Balance sheet and cash returns
Management continues an aggressive share repurchase program. InvestingPro data indicate that buybacks have been a material driver of capital allocation in recent periods, and the stock currently offers a free cash flow yield of 13%. Blackbaud’s 2030 targets include a commitment to return 50% of free cash flow through buybacks, which the company expects will support a 13%+ Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rate.
Mid-term financial targets
The company has laid out 2030 targets comprising 4-6% revenue CAGR, 6-8% EBITDA CAGR, and a 28% free cash flow margin. Stifel and InvestingPro highlighted these targets as central to management’s medium-term plan and to expectations for shareholder returns driven by the repurchase policy.
Products and commercial plans for 2026
Blackbaud is entering 2026 with a focus on its new Agents for Good portfolio, which the company says will be commercially available soon. The products will be sold under multi-year contracts with fixed annual fees for usage, while any incremental volume from adoption will be captured in the transactional revenue line.
Valuation context and upside considerations
Stifel’s revision centers on sector-wide multiple compression rather than on a deterioration of the company’s reported fundamentals. The firm also noted that potential contributions from artificial intelligence are not included in the 2026 or mid-term targets. Stifel said it will monitor any AI-related revenue or margin uplift as 2026 progresses, since a favorable market reception could present upside beyond current guidance.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis was cited as suggesting Blackbaud is significantly undervalued at current market levels, and its tools flag the stock’s relative technical position as potentially oversold - the stock’s RSI was noted as indicating it may be in oversold territory, which some investors interpret as a contrarian signal.
What investors and analysts are watching
Key near-term items to observe include commercialization of the Agents for Good portfolio, any incremental transactional volume from that roll-out, management’s execution of share repurchases, and evidence of AI-driven revenue or margin contributions that were not assumed in current targets. Stifel has emphasized that, while fundamentals were intact at quarter-end, valuation pressures in the software sector drove the target change.
Summary
Stifel trimmed its Blackbaud price target to $50 and maintained a Hold, citing multiple compression in the software sector despite a clean fourth-quarter finish and management’s clear capital return strategy. The firm will track AI contributions and the commercial launch of a new product portfolio as potential upside catalysts in 2026.