Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

Stifel lifts TFI International price target after stronger-than-expected quarter, keeps Hold

Q4 outperformance and solid cash flow offset cautious guidance and valuation concerns, analysts weigh mixed signals

By Leila Farooq TFII
Stifel lifts TFI International price target after stronger-than-expected quarter, keeps Hold
TFII

Stifel increased its 12-month price target on TFI International to $116 from $113 while retaining a Hold rating, citing a fourth-quarter earnings beat and stronger-than-expected cash flow and margins. Management flagged continued weakness in freight demand and issued conservative first-quarter guidance, leaving valuation and near-term volume visibility as key considerations for investors.

Key Points

  • Stifel raised its price target on TFI International to $116 from $113 while keeping a Hold rating - the shares trade at $118.05, near the top of their 52-week range.
  • Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.09 beat Stifel's $0.86 estimate and the $0.85 consensus, with cash flow and margins outperforming largely due to U.S. LTL and logistics segments.
  • Company issued conservative Q1 2026 guidance of $0.50 to $0.60 per share; analysts forecast full-year 2026 EPS of $4.48 and next earnings are set for April 28, 2026.

Stifel recently revised its valuation of TFI International, raising the firm's price objective to $116 from $113 but preserving a Hold rating on the shares. Market data shows TFI shares trading at $118.05, close to the top of their 52-week band of $72.02 to $128.56. That price position reflects a 25.26% total return over the last six months, according to InvestingPro figures.

The upgrade in price target follows TFI’s fourth-quarter 2025 results. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $1.09, outpacing Stifel’s internal estimate of $0.86 and the consensus expectation of $0.85. That $1.09 result was roughly 30% above the company’s own guidance midpoint of $0.85. Stifel highlighted that the quarter’s cash flow and margin performance exceeded its forecasts, with much of the upside driven by the U.S. less-than-truckload - LTL - and logistics operations.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, TFI reported diluted EPS of $3.72 and an EBITDA figure of $983.71 million on revenue totaling $7.88 billion. Despite those metrics, management cautioned that freight demand remains soft in certain pockets of the industrial economy. The company attributed part of the sluggishness to customer hesitancy amid trade uncertainty and to significant disruptions from January winter storms.

Revenue trends underscore the headwinds: TFI recorded a 6.1% decline in revenue over the past twelve months. Yet, analyst coverage remains broadly positive; InvestingPro shows a consensus Buy rating on the shares despite the more guarded commentary from management.

Looking ahead, TFI provided first-quarter 2026 guidance in the range of $0.50 to $0.60 per share. That midpoint implies a roughly 50% sequential decrease in adjusted EPS compared with the prior quarter. Stifel observed that the guidance could be conservative but noted it was not the outcome investors had been expecting. Street estimates for full-year 2026 EPS stand at $4.48, and the company is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on April 28, 2026.

From an operational perspective, Stifel pointed to several initiatives underway in the U.S. LTL business and early indications of rate stabilization within specialty truckload services. However, the firm balanced those positives against valuation and execution uncertainties - specifically limited visibility into the pace of volume recovery and the sustainability of truckload margins.

Valuation metrics cited in the analysis show TFI trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.46 and an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 12.72. InvestingPro’s assessment suggests the company is currently trading above its Fair Value, a conclusion that aligns with Stifel’s cautious posture on valuation despite TFI’s robust financial health metrics.

The market reaction to the quarter has been mixed among other brokerages. Stephens trimmed its price target to $105 while keeping an Equal Weight rating. TD Cowen took a more bullish stance by raising its target to $130 and maintaining a Buy recommendation. Bank of America Securities upgraded TFI International to Neutral from Underperform and set a price target of $123. Separately, BofA also adjusted another price target to $93, referencing the company’s expanding role in transporting equipment related to data centers and electric grid projects.

In addition to the financial and operational updates, TFI announced a board leadership change: André Bérard will retire from his role as Lead Director after 23 years of service, and Diane Giard is slated to succeed him in that role.

In sum, the quarter delivered stronger-than-anticipated earnings and cash flow, principally driven by U.S. LTL and logistics businesses, but current guidance and revenue trends keep a cautious near-term tone. Analysts and investors will be watching the April 28, 2026 earnings release for further clarity on volume recovery, rate trends in truckload segments, and the durability of improved margins.

Risks

  • Weak underlying freight demand and industry hesitancy tied to trade uncertainty - impacts freight, industrial, and transportation sectors.
  • Significant weather disruptions (January winter storms) that materially affected operations - impacts logistics and regional supply chains.
  • Limited visibility on the pace of volume recovery and truckload margin durability - affects valuation and investor expectations in the transportation and logistics markets.

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