Stifel raised its price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) to $20 from $17 on Monday and maintained a Buy rating, citing favorable fourth-quarter 2025 results and a constructive outlook for the company. The new target sits alongside InvestingPro data indicating Rivian is trading slightly below its Fair Value; the stock has gained 18.5% over the past week.
The analyst firm pointed to multiple signs of progress across Rivian's business. Stifel highlighted improving margins and positive pre-production reviews of the R2 vehicle as evidence of operational momentum. Those observations come against a backdrop in which Rivian's revenue rose 8.4% over the last twelve months but gross profit margins remain thin, at just 2.7%.
Rivian's guidance for 2026 deliveries came in at 62,000 to 67,000 units, a range that exceeded Stifel's own pre-release forecast of 52,000 units. Stifel described the guidance as reflecting an anticipated strong second-half ramp in R2 production, a cadence the firm sees as central to achieving the higher delivery figure. InvestingPro data cited by analysts point to an expected 32% increase in Rivian's revenue for fiscal 2026.
Looking ahead, Stifel identified the primary drivers for the next 12 months as the actual sales performance of the R2 and the arrival of data that would validate expectations for expanding automotive margins as R2 production scales. The firm also underscored continued growth in Rivian's Software & Services segment, noting its higher margins as a constructive offset to automotive margin pressures.
Rivian's reported fourth-quarter 2025 results provided immediate support for the more positive tone. The company posted an adjusted earnings per share of -$0.70, a slight beat versus the -$0.71 forecast. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.29 billion, topping the $1.27 billion estimate. Perhaps most notable, Rivian reported a positive GAAP gross margin of 9% for the quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%.
Market reactions to the quarter included multiple analyst target and rating revisions. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $18 from $15 while maintaining a Neutral rating. TD Cowen increased its target to $17 from $13 and kept a Hold rating. Deutsche Bank upgraded Rivian from Hold to Buy and set a $23 price target, citing an improved outlook and what it called reasonable volume expectations for 2026; the bank also noted that Rivian's R2 launch remains on track for the second quarter.
Analysts described these developments as encouraging in light of a recent period of sentiment weakness for the company. That said, the firms that updated their views emphasized that the trajectory of R2 deliveries, margin expansion, and the performance of high-margin services will be central to whether the more optimistic outlook is sustained.
What to watch next
- Rivian's R2 sales volumes and the timing of the anticipated second-half production ramp.
- Quarterly automotive margin trends as R2 production scales and the contribution from Software & Services.
- Follow-up commentary from analysts and management on 2026 volume expectations and any updates to delivery guidance.