Analyst Ratings February 9, 2026

Stifel Lifts Philip Morris Target to $200 After Strong Q4; Buy Rating Remains

Analyst action follows better-than-expected quarter, margin expansion and guidance for 2026 and medium-term targets

By Caleb Monroe PM
Stifel Lifts Philip Morris Target to $200 After Strong Q4; Buy Rating Remains
PM

Stifel increased its price target on Philip Morris to $200 from $180 and kept a Buy rating after the tobacco company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Philip Morris posted volume growth and operating profit margin expansion that beat estimates, reported a 67.12% gross profit margin, and issued initial fiscal 2026 guidance for sales and EPS growth on a constant currency basis.

Key Points

  • Stifel raised its Philip Morris price target to $200 from $180 and maintained a Buy rating; shares traded at $182.81, about 2% below a 52-week high and up 31.06% year over year.
  • Philip Morris beat expectations in Q4 with both volume growth and operating profit margin expansion; gross profit margin stood at 67.12%.
  • Company guidance for fiscal 2026 calls for 5%-7% sales growth and 7.5%-9.5% EPS growth on a constant currency basis, and medium-term targets through 2028 were reaffirmed.

Stifel on Monday raised its price objective for Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) to $200.00 from $180.00 while maintaining a Buy recommendation on the stock. At the time of the update, shares were trading at $182.81, roughly 2% below the 52-week high of $186.69 and having returned 31.06% over the past year.

Market indicators flagged in the report show that the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) may suggest overbought conditions, even as the security trades at a low PEG ratio of 0.41. Stifel’s decision to lift the target follows the company’s fourth-quarter performance, which the firm described as stronger than expected.

In that quarter, Philip Morris reported both volume growth and an expansion in operating profit margins that exceeded Stifel’s estimates. The company’s gross profit margin remains elevated at 67.12%, a metric the analyst cited as underpinning the firm’s improved view of the shares.

Philip Morris also issued its initial outlook for fiscal year 2026. On a constant currency basis, management expects sales to rise 5%-7% and earnings per share to increase 7.5%-9.5%. Stifel characterized these targets as broadly in line with market expectations despite the guidance including some unique headwinds.

Valuation and income metrics included in the update show a current price-to-earnings ratio of 25.18 and a dividend yield of 3.22%. The analyst note emphasized the company’s renewed medium-term targets through fiscal 2028, which mirror prior 2024-2026 objectives: organic sales growth of 6%-8% and EPS growth of 9%-11% on a constant currency basis.

Stifel pointed to momentum in smoke-free products as a significant driver of future growth. The company expects high single-digit to low-teen volume growth in the smoke-free category, and the analyst highlighted the combined effect of overall volume increases, the mix shift toward smoke-free products, and pricing actions as the primary factors supporting the Buy rating.

In related disclosures, Philip Morris reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.70, matching analyst expectations, while revenue came in at $10.4 billion versus projected revenue of $10.39 billion. Despite meeting and slightly exceeding these forecasts, the stock experienced a decline in pre-market trading following the release.

The earnings announcement did not include any significant mergers or acquisitions, and there were no notable analyst upgrades or downgrades from major firms reported alongside the release. Market participants continue to monitor the company’s execution against its medium-term targets and the evolution of the smoke-free product mix as they assess the stock’s outlook.


Contextual notes - The balance of strong margin performance, a clear growth outlook for 2026, and the firm’s reiterated medium-term targets provide the basis for Stifel’s higher price target. At the same time, technical indicators and a recent pre-market dip underline that investor sentiment can shift in the near term.

Risks

  • Technical indicators suggest the stock may be overbought - this could affect short-term price action in the equity markets and investor positioning.
  • Guidance for 2026 and the medium-term includes headwinds highlighted by the company; execution risk remains for achieving the stated sales and EPS growth targets.
  • Despite meeting earnings and revenue expectations, the stock still dipped in pre-market trading, demonstrating sensitivity to near-term market reaction even when results align with estimates.

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