Stifel has increased its price target for MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) to $50.00 from $45.00, while leaving its rating on the casino operator unchanged at Buy. The firm announced the revision on Friday and anchored the new target to a 2027 sum-of-the-parts valuation, according to the research note.
At the time of the update, MGM shares were trading at $36.28, which leaves roughly 14% of upside to consensus analyst targets. InvestingPro data referenced in the research shows the stock trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 45.65.
Stifel's analysis highlights a potential for MGM to expand EBITDA on the Las Vegas Strip beginning in the second half of 2026 - but not before then. The company’s current trailing-twelve-month EBITDA stands at $2.32 billion. The firm also described consensus estimates for MGM as "in a very realistic range," noting that this positioning could allow for upside to the shares.
In its commentary, the analyst acknowledged uncertainty around the return of lower-value customers to the Strip, writing that even if "the low-end value customer doesn’t return in full force," MGM still has a path to growth on the Strip. That view underpins Stifel’s characterization of the stock’s short-term risk/reward as "geared way too far to the upside" and frames current levels as, for investors able to wait, "an overly compelling risk/reward" opportunity.
Stifel’s updated target incorporates a 2027 sum-of-the-parts analysis rather than relying only on near-term forecasts. InvestingPro data cited by the firm shows analysts projecting earnings per share of $2.67 for fiscal year 2026, and that net income is expected to grow this year.
Separately, MGM Resorts International reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $1.23, ahead of the anticipated $0.61. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.61 billion, exceeding the forecasted $4.42 billion. Those figures reflect stronger-than-expected performance for the quarter.
Despite the better-than-expected earnings and revenue, the stock declined in pre-market trading following the release. The reports did not specify drivers for the pre-market dip, and the research note emphasized that broader market forces or company-specific considerations could be factors - without detailing them. The developments serve as a reminder that solid quarterly results do not always produce immediate gains in share prices.
Taken together, Stifel’s move to raise the price target rests on a later-cycle improvement in Strip EBITDA, realistic consensus estimates and a multiyear valuation framework. That combination supports the firm’s Buy stance and underlies its view that the current share price presents a favorable long-term risk/reward for investors willing to be patient.