Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Stifel lifts Expeditors target to $141 after Q4 beat; shares retain Hold rating

Q4 EPS topped estimates as revenue softened on ocean rate pressure; company boosts buyback plan and keeps dividend streak intact

By Priya Menon EXPD
Stifel lifts Expeditors target to $141 after Q4 beat; shares retain Hold rating
EXPD

Stifel raised its price objective on Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) to $141 from $136 while keeping a Hold rating after the logistics company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat expectations on earnings per share. The quarter showed a 3% year-over-year revenue decline driven by ocean rate compression and lower container volumes, offset in part by airfreight growth and strong customs brokerage and other services. Management returned $875 million to shareholders in 2025 and authorized a new $3 billion repurchase program.

Key Points

  • Stifel raised its price target on Expeditors to $141 from $136 while keeping a Hold rating.
  • Expeditors reported Q4 2025 EPS of $1.49, beating Stifel estimates of $1.39 and the street estimate of $1.47; revenues fell 3% year-over-year due to ocean rate compression and lower container volumes.
  • Company returned $875 million to shareholders in 2025, authorized a new $3 billion buyback program (up to 130 million shares), and has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years.

Analyst update and quarter highlights

Stifel has adjusted its price target on Expeditors International of Washington (NYSE: EXPD) to $141 from $136, while leaving the stock rated as Hold. The change follows the company reporting fourth-quarter 2025 results in which adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.49, ahead of Stifel estimates of $1.39 and marginally above the consensus street estimate of $1.47.

Financial performance and drivers

Revenue for the quarter declined 3% year-over-year. Management attributed the top-line contraction to continued ocean rate compression and reduced container volumes. Those headwinds were partially offset by resilient airfreight volume growth and sustained double-digit expansion in customs brokerage and other services, which helped limit the earnings impact.

The report noted margin compression across both air and ocean segments versus elevated comparisons from 2024, though executives highlighted structural growth in higher-value service lines as a mitigating factor. The company returned $875 million to shareholders during 2025 and also authorized a new $3 billion share repurchase program.


Shareholder returns and corporate actions

The newly authorized $3 billion buyback program will take effect upon the expiration of the current program and permits the company to repurchase up to 130 million shares. In addition to the repurchase activity, the company has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years, underscoring a consistent shareholder-return posture.

Expeditors also disclosed an employment agreement with Roberto A. Martinez, who serves as President, Global Products, effective June 1, 2025. Under the terms released, Martinez is to receive an annual base salary of $100,000 and will be eligible for incentive-based compensation.


Analyst perspectives and competing views

Stifel sees the outlook into 2026 as one of modest recovery in air margins, structurally resilient customs growth, and ongoing normalization of ocean markets. The firm identifies ocean rate stability and the continued scale of tech- and ecommerce-driven air demand as key swing factors for the company s near-term performance.

Other broker activity around Expeditors included BofA Securities upgrading the stock from Neutral to Buy and raising its price target to $179.00, citing potential tailwinds from tariff complexity benefiting the Customs Brokerage business. BofA also adjusted another price target to $150.00 from $142.00 following a recent conference call with the company s senior executives. In a separate note later in the coverage, Stifel was reported to have increased its price target to $136.00 while maintaining a Hold rating.


Valuation snapshot

The company carries a market capitalization of $18.38 billion and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.27. That valuation was described as appearing slightly undervalued in analysis cited alongside the results.


What this means for markets and operations

The quarter points to a logistics operating environment where ocean rate normalization and volume softness continue to pressure top-line growth, even as higher-margin service lines such as customs brokerage and other services deliver structural expansion. The firm s commitment to significant share repurchases and a long track record of dividend increases underscore a capital-allocation focus on returning cash to shareholders amid industry headwinds.

Note: The article summarizes reported company results, analyst reactions, and disclosed corporate actions as presented in the most recent company update and analyst notes.

Risks

  • Continued ocean rate compression and lower container volumes could further weigh on top-line growth - impacting the ocean freight and broader transportation sectors.
  • Margin compression in both air and ocean businesses may persist, creating uncertainty for profitability in the logistics and supply-chain sectors.
  • Dependence on the durability of tech and ecommerce-driven air demand makes airfreight volumes a key vulnerability for revenue and margin recovery.

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