Stifel has reaffirmed its Hold rating and retained a $98.00 price target on UFP Industries (NASDAQ:UFPI) after reviewing the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results.
UFP Industries reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of $107 million, which represents a 19% decline from the year-earlier period and landed below analysts' estimates and consensus expectations. The company’s revenue performance was a contributing factor, consistent with a 3.9% decline in revenue over the last twelve months.
On valuation and market moves, UFP Industries currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.88. The company has a market value of approximately $6.5 billion and its stock has appreciated 16.77% year-to-date despite the recent operating headwinds.
Segment results were mixed. The Construction segment held up relatively well, while the Retail segment missed revenue expectations even amid references to hurricane-influenced comparisons. Management did not provide formal fiscal 2026 guidance, characterizing the outlook as cautiously optimistic but signaling a measured stance for the coming year.
From a balance-sheet and capital allocation perspective, UFP repurchased $162 million of its common stock during the quarter. Third-party commentary cited this buyback level as aggressive activity by management. The company maintains a net cash position, with reported leverage of 1.2x, indicating more cash than debt on the balance sheet. UFP has also increased its dividend for 13 consecutive years; the current dividend yield stands at 1.35%.
Stifel noted that it will reassess its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate following the company’s earnings call. For now, the firm’s updated model incorporates the actual fourth-quarter 2025 results but does not change the underlying assumptions driving its forecast.
Additional reported metrics show the company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share were $0.70, below the expected $1.05. Quarterly revenue totaled $1.33 billion, short of the projected $1.4 billion. The company did not disclose any merger or acquisition activity in the recent disclosure, and there were no reported analyst upgrades or downgrades at this time.
These developments provide a mixture of caution and resilience: operating results missed market expectations, yet buybacks, a net cash position and a long-running dividend increase underscore management’s emphasis on returning capital and preserving balance-sheet flexibility.
Key points
- Stifel maintains a Hold rating and a $98.00 price target on UFP Industries following Q4 results.
- Fourth-quarter EBITDA was $107 million, down 19% year-over-year; revenue declined 3.9% over the past 12 months.
- Company repurchased $162 million of shares, holds net cash with leverage at 1.2x, and has raised its dividend for 13 straight years (yield: 1.35%).
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term operating performance - Q4 results missed consensus on both EBITDA and revenue, and fiscal 2026 guidance was not provided, leaving revenue and profit trajectory uncertain for investors.
- Retail segment weakness - Retail revenue fell short of expectations, which could weigh on topline recovery if the trend persists.
- Analyst coverage and market reaction - With no reported upgrades or downgrades and Stifel awaiting further visibility before adjusting fiscal 2026 estimates, there is uncertainty about how analysts will revise forecasts following management commentary.
Investors assessing UFP Industries will be watching management’s commentary on the earnings call and any subsequent revisions to analyst models to better understand the drivers behind the quarter’s shortfall and the outlook for fiscal 2026.