Stifel reiterated its Buy recommendation on Post Holdings and set a $130.00 price target, which equates to an approximate 13% upside from the stock's current level of $114.61. That target is consistent with a fair-value assessment indicating the shares are trading below intrinsic valuation.
In the firm's note, analyst Matthew Smith preserved Stifel's fiscal year 2026 EBITDA projection at $1.564 billion while altering the intra-year cadence of that estimate. The change is described as a modest rephasing of EBITDA across the fiscal year rather than a change in the full-year magnitude. That FY26 forecast represents growth versus the company's last-twelve-months EBITDA of $1.42 billion.
Stifel's research highlighted divergent expectations across Post's operating segments. The firm raised its outlook for the Foodservice segment, pointing to stronger momentum there. By contrast, Stifel expects Post's Refrigerated Retail and the Weetabix business to perform at least on-algorithm in FY26, while Post Consumer Brands is projected to modestly underperform - a view driven by pressure across pet and cereal categories.
Supporting the mixed operational picture, revenue data show Post achieved 5.4% top-line growth over the past twelve months, and consensus estimates cited by the research note project roughly 3% revenue growth for fiscal 2026.
Stifel also flagged several upcoming company-level catalysts it believes investors should monitor. Those include Post moving beyond private-label distribution losses at the end of second-quarter 2026, Nutrish pricing resets that largely occur in March, and notable sales opportunities in the Refrigerated Retail private-label side-dishes business. Looking further ahead, the firm raised its FY27 expectations and updated its model to reflect on-algorithm 5% EBITDA growth in Foodservice off a new $500 million run rate.
The Stifel note arrives amid recent corporate results that fell short of analyst estimates. In its first quarter of fiscal 2026, Post reported earnings per share of $0.37, well below the consensus forecast of $1.68. Revenue for the quarter came in at $537.3 million versus an anticipated $2.18 billion. Despite those headline misses, the company reported strong adjusted EBITDA and subsequently raised its full-year guidance.
Other sell-side activity cited in the research environment includes an Evercore ISI update that moved its price target on Post Holdings to $131 from $129 while retaining an Outperform rating. Evercore's decision was influenced by the stronger-than-expected performance in Post's foodservice businesses, notably Michael Foods, where growth in value-added egg products - which account for about 30% of Michael Foods' sales and carry higher margins - has been a positive contributor.
Together, these analyst views and company disclosures depict a business with pockets of strength in Foodservice and areas of near-term pressure in some consumer-facing segments, leaving market participants to weigh the timing of recoveries against the valuation upside implied by current targets.