Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

Stifel Keeps Buy on Marvell After XConn Deal, Sees Measured Near-Term Costs and Later Revenue Lift

Analyst updates account for purchase-related expense adjustments and a targeted $50 million annualized revenue run rate from XConn in late FY27

By Ajmal Hussain MRVL
Stifel Keeps Buy on Marvell After XConn Deal, Sees Measured Near-Term Costs and Later Revenue Lift
MRVL

Stifel has maintained a Buy rating and a $114.00 price target on Marvell (MRVL) following the close of the company's roughly $540 million acquisition of XConn Technologies. The bank incorporates modest near-term expense and interest-income effects from the cash consideration while forecasting XConn-generated revenue beginning in fiscal Q3 2027 and reaching about $50 million annualized by Q4. The $114 target equates to a 34.4x CY26 P/E multiple, while Marvell is trading at a 28.74 P/E and is viewed as slightly undervalued against InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment.

Key Points

  • Stifel repeats Buy rating on Marvell and maintains a $114 price target, which reflects a 34.4x CY26 P/E assumption.
  • XConn acquisition - closed Feb 10, 2026 for about $540 million - adds PCIe and CXL switch silicon and is expected to start contributing revenue in fiscal Q3 2027, ramping to a $50 million annualized run rate by fiscal Q4 2027.
  • The deals and resulting modeling affect semiconductor and cloud/AI infrastructure sectors - increasing near-term operating expense and reducing interest income from cash deployment while supporting scale-up connectivity roadmaps.

Stifel has reiterated a Buy recommendation on Marvell with an unchanged price target of $114.00 after the semiconductor company completed its acquisition of XConn Technologies. The transaction, announced closed on February 10, 2026, is valued at roughly $540 million and adds PCIe and CXL switch silicon to Marvell's portfolio.

The acquisition is positioned as a strategic reinforcement of Marvell's UALink capabilities over the longer term. Marvell, with a market capitalization of $70.93 billion, has recorded near-term top-line momentum, reporting roughly 45% revenue growth over the most recent twelve months.


Stifel's financial adjustments and timing for XConn revenue

Stifel expects the XConn business to begin contributing to Marvell's sales in the company's fiscal third quarter of 2027. The firm projects a ramp that reaches approximately a $50 million annualized run rate by Marvell's fiscal fourth quarter of 2027. In response to that anticipated contribution, Stifel has lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue forecast by $100 million.

At the same time, Stifel models several acquisition-related impacts on Marvell's financial statements. The firm expects non-GAAP operating expenses in fiscal 2027 to be higher by about $25 million annually following the acquisition. In addition, Other Income is modeled lower by approximately $12 million annually, reflecting reduced interest income tied to a $325 million cash outlay associated with the deal.

Those adjustments drive a small revision to Stifel's earnings view for fiscal 2027. The firm's non-GAAP EPS estimate for FY27 was reduced from $3.41 to $3.37, while its FY28 non-GAAP EPS estimate remains unchanged at $4.90.


Valuation context and research access

Stifel's $114 price target implies a 34.4x calendar year 2026 price-to-earnings multiple. By comparison, Marvell's current trading multiple is about 28.74 P/E. InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment described in the briefing indicates that Marvell appears slightly undervalued at prevailing prices. Investors who follow the company's results can consult Marvell's comprehensive Pro Research Report, which is available ahead of the company's next reported earnings on March 5, 2026.


Other analyst commentary and related acquisitions

In related corporate activity, Marvell has also completed the purchase of Celestial AI. That deal brings optical interconnect technology into Marvell's portfolio and is intended to strengthen the company's capabilities in high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity - a complement to the PCIe and CXL products acquired from XConn and to Marvell's UALink scale-up switching roadmap.

Analysts have mixed near-term views on the combined effect of these transactions. UBS trimmed its price target on Marvell to $115 from $120, citing the Celestial AI acquisition as a potential near-term dilutive influence on earnings. UBS models a reduction in EPS of roughly $0.20 in fiscal 2027 and about $0.16 in fiscal 2028 tied to that deal. Benchmark, meanwhile, has kept a Hold rating and notes that revenue from the Celestial AI acquisition is expected to start contributing in the second half of fiscal 2028.

Finally, Marvell filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC that contains a legal opinion on the issuance and sale of securities related to its recent corporate actions.


What this means going forward

Stifel's note maintains an endorsement of Marvell's strategic direction following the XConn close while explicitly accounting for modest expense and interest-income impacts in the near term. The firm is banking on XConn's switch silicon to contribute meaningfully to revenue by the end of the fiscal year 2027 period, and it has adjusted revenue forecasts accordingly. Other sell-side observers have signaled potential near-term dilution from the Celestial AI purchase and have set differing ratings and timing expectations for revenue contributions.

Investors assessing Marvell should weigh the company's recent M&A activity, the modeled near-term financial effects described above, and the expected timing of incremental revenue. The company's next earnings release is scheduled for March 5, 2026.

Risks

  • Near-term earnings dilution from recent acquisitions - UBS projects EPS reductions of about $0.20 in FY27 and $0.16 in FY28 tied to the Celestial AI acquisition, which could pressure semiconductor and hardware-equipment profit metrics.
  • Timing risk for revenue recognition - Stifel's expectations for XConn revenue to begin in fiscal Q3 2027 and to reach a $50 million run rate by Q4 assume a specific integration timeline; any slippage would affect revenue forecasts and sector expectations.
  • Increased operating expense and lower Other Income - Stifel models roughly $25 million higher annual non-GAAP operating expenses in FY27 and about $12 million less Other Income annually from the $325 million cash outlay, which has implications for near-term profitability in the semiconductor sector.

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