Stifel has adjusted its valuation for HubSpot Inc (NYSE: HUBS), trimming the price target to $375 from $500 but maintaining a Buy designation. The move follows HubSpots guidance for fiscal year 2026, which pegged constant currency revenue growth at 16% and elicited a mixed after-hours market response, according to Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane.
At the time of the firms note, HubSpot shares were trading around $219.54. InvestingPro fair value estimates characterize the shares as undervalued, and the stock remains near oversold levels after a 73.35% decline over the past year, with a 52-week low of $207.20 cited by InvestingPro.
Stifels revision was motivated more by sector-level valuation movement than by a change in the firms assessment of HubSpots business momentum. The analyst firm noted that a 17% constant currency growth rate would have constituted clearer acceleration relative to prior expectations, but nonetheless left intact the view that HubSpots fundamental growth trajectory is structurally sound.
Key operational data underpin Stifels continued optimism. HubSpot reported 19.21% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Fiscal year 2025 net new annualized recurring revenue, or NNARR, grew 24%, representing a 600 basis point premium to constant currency revenue growth. Management also reported fourth-quarter net revenue retention of 105%.
Stifel highlighted managements expectation that NNARR will again outpace overall revenue in 2026, and pointed to product adoption signals such as AI-native wins and scaling credit consumption as evidence the company is positioned for the so-called agentic era. Those factors contributed to Stifels decision to keep HubSpot on Buy despite lowering the target price.
Investors and analysts have reacted by repricing expectations across the sector. InvestingPro commentary indicates expectations for profitability this year, and notes there are 14 additional ProTips available in its Pro Research Report. Separately, multiple other brokerages have trimmed their targets for HubSpot in recent weeks.
- Truist Securities lowered its price target to $300 from $650 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald moved its target to $280 from $500, citing concerns around AI-driven disruption in the application software space.
- BMO Capital cut its target to $285 from $385, noting solid company performance in the face of sector pressures.
- TD Cowen reduced its target to $270 from $370 and referenced HubSpots 18% constant currency revenue growth as consistent with the companys 2026 guidance.
- Piper Sandler set a $280 target, down from $400, and pointed to lower software multiples as a driving factor.
Collectively, these revisions illustrate a broader recalibration in software valuations: analysts continue to balance HubSpots strong subscription economics and recurring revenue trends against downward pressure on SaaS multiples across the sector.
From a market-structure perspective, Stifel emphasized that the price target reduction stems from group-level multiple compression rather than an erosion of the companys core metrics. That distinction underlies the firms willingness to retain a Buy rating even as the numerical target was reduced.
Investors tracking HubSpot will likely be watching whether managements expectation that NNARR will again outpace revenue in 2026 is borne out, and whether the companys AI-driven product adoption and credit consumption trends translate into sustained margin and retention improvements.
For now, the market appears to be reflecting a combination of investor caution about software multiples and recognition of HubSpots recurring-revenue strength. The recent spate of downward target adjustments from several brokers underscores the tension between those forces.