Stifel has revised down its price target on Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) to $30.00 from $42.00 but maintained a Buy rating on the ad-technology company, the firm said following Criteo's recent quarterly report. The new target sits close to InvestingPro's Fair Value estimate, indicating Stifel views the stock as undervalued against the current market price of $19.18.
In its review of Criteo's fourth-quarter results, Stifel characterized the quarter as "essentially in line with expectations," although it noted that the company's guidance for the first quarter came in below Street estimates. Stifel emphasized that Criteo remains profitable, pointing to a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.38 and a balance sheet position with more cash than debt.
On Criteo's initial outlook for 2026, Stifel said it was "more or less in line with consensus in aggregate," while flagging a slightly different mix shift within that guidance. The firm identified the first quarter as the expected low point for Criteo in 2026.
Stifel flagged several corporate milestones ahead for Criteo, including a shareholder vote on redomiciliation scheduled for February 27 and an anticipated first re-domicile in the third quarter of 2026. The firm expressed confidence that shares should rise as the company moves past current headwinds, anticipating that growth will reaccelerate after the first-half impact of RM and noting favorable positioning in what it described as "agentic commerce."
Also reporting on Criteo's fourth-quarter 2025 results, DA Davidson lowered its price target to $28.50 from $38.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. DA Davidson described the quarter as "solid" and said results were slightly ahead of consensus on certain measures.
The fourth-quarter earnings print combined a mixed set of outcomes. Criteo reported earnings per share of $1.30, missing the forecasted $1.38 and representing a 5.8% negative surprise. At the same time, the company posted revenue of $541 million, well above the expected $328.96 million and amounting to a 64.46% positive surprise.
Key takeaways
- Stifel lowered its price target on CRTO to $30 from $42 but kept a Buy rating.
- Criteo's Q4 results were described by Stifel as "essentially in line with expectations," though Q1 guidance was softer than Street estimates.
- DA Davidson trimmed its target to $28.50 after a quarter that combined a revenue beat with an EPS miss.
Sectors affected
- Advertising technology and digital media, given Criteo's role as an ad-tech provider.
- Equity markets and analyst coverage of mid-cap technology and marketing services stocks.
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term guidance risk - Criteo's first-quarter outlook came in below Street estimates, suggesting potential short-term volatility for the stock and uncertainty for advertisers and ad-tech budgets.
- Execution and mix risk - Stifel noted a "slightly different mix shift" in 2026 guidance, indicating uncertainty about how revenue components will evolve and the impact on margins.
- Redomiciliation timeline - Planned corporate actions such as the shareholder vote on February 27 and the expected first re-domicile in the third quarter of 2026 introduce governance and execution risk until completed.
Investors weighing Criteo's valuation will see a company that remains profitable on current metrics, with a P/E of 7.38 and a balance sheet that reports more cash than debt. Analysts who cover the name are parsing a quarter that combined strong top-line performance with an EPS miss, while also recalibrating price targets and reiterating Buy ratings amid a view that the business should recover once near-term headwinds abate.