Investment firm Stifel has started coverage of Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) with a Buy rating and set a $44.00 price target, according to a report published Tuesday. The stock was trading at $28.06 at the time of the report, reflecting a rise of more than 470% over the prior six months. Separately, InvestingPro data referenced in the report suggests that shares could be valued above fundamentals at current levels.
Stifel’s positive stance centers on what it describes as next-generation TYK2 inhibitors that deliver full target coverage. The firm frames these compounds as potential oral therapies that may avoid the need for a boxed warning - a safety distinction that would be meaningful if borne out in later-stage data and regulatory review. Stifel pointed specifically to topline psoriasis results for Alumis’ envudeucitinib as supportive evidence for that target-coverage hypothesis.
In its analysis, Stifel said the psoriasis topline appears superior to results reported for competing agents Zasocitinib and Sotyktu. The firm noted that additional data and detail are expected at the American Academy of Dermatology conference scheduled for March 27-31, which could provide more context on the comparative profile of envudeucitinib.
Stifel also described how encouraging psoriasis data may lower development risk for broader indications. The firm singled out systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a program where positive outcomes could de-risk later-stage development, with SLE data anticipated in the third quarter of 2026. Stifel extended this reasoning to other autoimmune and inflammatory conditions where the TYK2 target-coverage hypothesis would apply.
Alumis is progressing toward a regulatory filing for psoriasis, with the company on track to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) in the second half of 2026. Stifel suggested there is a plausible pathway to a strategic transaction to support commercial launch and the expansion of Alumis’ TYK2-focused pipeline.
On the financing front, Alumis has completed an upsized public offering that generated roughly $345.1 million in gross proceeds. The offering comprised the sale of 20,297,500 shares at $17.00 per share and included the full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase an additional 2,647,500 shares. The company had earlier announced plans for a $175 million common stock offering, with Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Securities named as joint book-running managers.
Analyst coverage beyond Stifel has also shifted following the Phase III psoriasis data for envudeucitinib. Chardan Capital Markets initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $37.00 price target, calling envudeucitinib the company’s lead asset based on its Phase III performance. Guggenheim raised its price target for Alumis to $32.00 from $18.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, likewise citing favorable trial results for the same drug.
Collectively, these analyst actions and the completed equity raise occur as Alumis prepares for an NDA submission for envudeucitinib in the second half of 2026. The company’s development focus remains TYK2 inhibition for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
Key points
- Stifel initiated coverage of Alumis (ALMS) with a Buy rating and a $44.00 price target, citing next-generation TYK2 inhibitors and supportive topline psoriasis data for envudeucitinib.
- Alumis raised about $345.1 million in gross proceeds from an upsized public offering, selling 20,297,500 shares at $17.00 each, including full exercise of the underwriters’ option.
- Other analysts have moved to Buy or raised price targets following Phase III results: Chardan initiated coverage with a $37.00 target and Guggenheim increased its target to $32.00.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation risk - InvestingPro data cited in the report indicates that Alumis shares may be overvalued at current market levels, which could affect investor returns in the near term.
- Clinical and regulatory risk - While topline psoriasis data are encouraging, further data disclosures and regulatory review are required before an NDA filing and potential approval, creating uncertainty for timing and outcome.
- Execution risk around commercialization - Stifel noted a potential need for a strategic transaction to support launch and pipeline expansion, indicating that successful commercial execution may depend on future corporate arrangements.