Stifel has left its recommendation on DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM) unchanged, keeping a Buy rating and an $85.00 price target following the company’s latest quarterly disclosure. The firm noted that its target is largely consistent with InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment, and that at the time of reporting the shares were trading near $65.08, roughly 30% under the stock’s 52-week peak of $93.25.
According to Stifel, the fourth-quarter results contained few surprises because DexCom had previously preannounced revenue and margin ranges and provided 2026 guidance at the JPMorgan healthcare conference the prior month. That advance disclosure, the analyst firm said, reduced the likelihood of unexpected headline items in the company’s official results.
Stifel drew attention to management’s positive tone on the earnings call, particularly remarks about robust sell-through at the end of the quarter that the company said has continued into the first quarter of 2026. The firm emphasized that this commentary fits with DexCom’s recent financial performance, which includes revenue growth of 14.21% over the last twelve months and a gross profit margin of 59%.
The research note also stressed the potential of international markets for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). Management indicated that non-U.S. sales could one day exceed U.S. revenue, a marked shift from the current geographic split in which 71% of revenue is U.S.-based and 29% comes from international markets. Stifel flagged this international opportunity as a key element of its constructive view.
Stifel listed a number of potential 2026 catalysts for DexCom, including the prospect of T2NIT Medicare coverage and company-specific drivers such as market share gains and momentum around the 15-Day product. These items contributed to Stifel naming DexCom its top pick within the diabetes sector.
Separately, Dexcom reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.68 versus a projected $0.65, a 4.62% surprise. Revenue for the quarter was $1.26 billion, ahead of forecasts of $1.24 billion. Despite those upside results, the stock moved lower in after-hours trading, slipping 4.45% to close at $68.15, and was quoted slightly higher at $68.32 in pre-market activity.
These developments arrive as DexCom continues to operate in a competitive environment. Investors and analysts will likely monitor the conversion of recent sell-through trends into sustained sales, the company’s international momentum, and the realization of the 2026 catalysts cited by Stifel.
Key points
- Stifel reiterated a Buy rating on DexCom and maintained an $85.00 price target, which aligns with InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment.
- Management reported strong end-of-quarter sell-through that reportedly continued into early 2026; DexCom recorded 14.21% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a 59% gross margin.
- Stifel highlighted international CGM opportunity, noting management’s view that non-U.S. sales could eventually surpass U.S. revenue; potential 2026 catalysts include T2NIT Medicare coverage, market share gains and the 15-Day product.
Risks and uncertainties
- Market reaction to earnings can be volatile - despite an earnings and revenue beat, the stock fell in after-hours trading, indicating investor sensitivity to factors beyond headline beats.
- The realization of identified catalysts is uncertain - items such as potential Medicare coverage and international market share expansion are cited as catalysts but are not guaranteed to materialize.