Stephens has lowered its price target on Martin Marietta Materials to $735.00 from $740.00, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the construction materials supplier. The change follows the company’s fourth-quarter results, which came in below the firm’s estimates and prompted a reassessment of near-term performance assumptions.
The company, with a market value of approximately $40 billion, currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.49. That P/E ratio is shown by available data to sit above the calculated Fair Value for the stock, suggesting potential valuation pressure even after a 24.87% total return over the past 12 months.
Key operational metrics from the fourth quarter failed to meet Stephens’ projections. Aggregates average selling price increased 5.3% year over year, short of the 7.2% gain Stephens had modeled. Volumes rose 2.1% versus an expected 2.8%.
Profitability on a per-ton basis also came up short. Aggregates gross profit per ton increased 8.6%, below Stephens’ estimate. Meanwhile, unit costs rose 4.0%, above the anticipated 1.4% increase. Adjusting for one-time items, unit costs still increased 2.7% in the period.
Guidance for calendar year 2026 was another area of divergence. Martin Marietta’s consolidated EBITDA outlook at the midpoint fell below Stephens’ estimate. At the midpoint of the company’s guidance, implied gross profit per ton was projected to rise 8.4% versus Stephens’ expectation of a 10.4% increase. The guidance also implies cost per ton will climb roughly 3% in 2026.
On a trailing basis, the company’s last twelve months EBITDA is $2.09 billion, and the shares are trading at an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 21.57.
Despite trimming the price target, Stephens maintained its positive stance on the stock’s relative potential. The firm stated that "a reasonable bar has been set for the year," and that the company’s outlook "still implies low teens earnings growth." Stephens also cited the pending Quikrete swap closure and ongoing discussions around reauthorization of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act as supportive considerations for the outlook.
Additional data points highlight certain shareholder-return characteristics and a modest dividend yield. Research data indicates the company has paid dividends for 32 consecutive years and has increased its dividend for 10 consecutive years, with a current yield of 0.5%. Separately, a third-party financial health assessment assigns the company a rating of "GOOD".
Martin Marietta announced its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results alongside these operational disclosures. The company reported earnings per share of $4.62, missing the consensus expectation of $4.85. Revenue for the quarter was $1.53 billion, short of the $1.66 billion forecast. These shortfalls were disclosed during the company’s earnings call. There were no reports of analyst upgrades or downgrades following the earnings release.
For investors and market participants, the combination of a valuation premium, guidance that implies slower per-ton margin expansion, and higher unit cost trends are key inputs when assessing risk and return for exposure to Martin Marietta and to the broader construction materials sector.
Summary: Stephens cut its Martin Marietta price target to $735 from $740 but kept an Overweight rating after fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance that came in below expectations on key per-ton metrics and unit costs. The stock trades at a P/E of 40.49 and an EV/EBITDA of 21.57; trailing EBITDA is $2.09 billion.