Stephens increased its price target on Expand Energy stock (NASDAQ:EXE) to $146 from $145 and retained an Overweight rating following the company’s fourth-quarter disclosures. The revised target sits near an analyst high of $152 and remains well above the stock’s prevailing market price of $102.75. Data from InvestingPro indicates Expand Energy may be modestly undervalued when measured against its Fair Value estimate.
The natural gas producer delivered fourth-quarter cash flow per share, free cash flow and production figures that exceeded consensus by 15%, 13% and 1%, respectively. Management left 2026 guidance unchanged after the quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 versus the same quarter in 2024, Expand Energy lowered net debt by $1 billion. Across calendar 2025 the company returned $865 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and it reduced the break-even price on its Haynesville assets by 15%. The stock carries a current dividend yield of 3.1% and recorded dividend growth of 30.74% over the past twelve months, indicators the company has prioritized shareholder distributions.
Looking ahead, the company signaled it will prioritize a net-debt reduction of more than $1 billion in 2026. At the same time, the company removed variable dividends from its capital allocation framework. Quarterly guidance for first-quarter 2026 capital expenditures was issued at a level 6% above consensus, while the full-year 2026 capex plan was presented in line with expectations.
Operationally, Expand Energy trimmed 2026 maintenance capital expenditures by $225 million and added 200 drillable locations in the Western Haynesville after completing its first well in that play at a cost below the nearest competitor. InvestingPro data also shows the company has a PEG ratio of 0.3, suggesting a low price-to-earnings multiple relative to anticipated earnings growth. The report notes that eleven analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period.
Corporate and analyst developments
In separate news, Expand Energy announced a management change with CEO Domenic Dell'Osso stepping down and Chairman Michael Wichterich named interim CEO. The company also plans to move its corporate headquarters from Oklahoma City to Houston, Texas, by mid-2026, while retaining Oklahoma City as an operational center.
On the analyst front, the landscape shows differing adjustments. Stephens is also reported to have lowered its price target for Expand Energy to $140, attributing the move to weaker gas prices while keeping an Overweight rating and anticipating fourth-quarter production to be consistent with guidance. Benchmark maintained a Buy rating, citing the company’s robust fundamentals and active balance-sheet management. UBS trimmed its target to $150 but kept a Buy rating and projected fourth-quarter cash flow per share would beat consensus.
These assorted analyst actions, together with the company’s reported operating and capital-allocation moves, illustrate an active period of reappraisal of Expand Energy’s strategic and financial positioning.
Key metrics and highlights
- Q4 cash flow per share, free cash flow and production beat consensus by 15%, 13% and 1%, respectively.
- Net debt reduced by $1 billion in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024.
- $865 million returned to investors in 2025 via dividends and buybacks; dividend yield 3.1% and 12-month dividend growth 30.74%.
- 2026 maintenance capex cut by $225 million; 200 new drilling locations added in Western Haynesville.
- First-quarter 2026 capex guidance 6% above consensus; full-year 2026 capex in line with expectations.
Analyst positioning and market context
Multiple brokerages have recently adjusted their assessments: Stephens increased a price objective to $146 while elsewhere it was reported to have lowered a target to $140; UBS reduced its target to $150 and kept a Buy stance; Benchmark retained a Buy rating. InvestingPro analysis highlights a PEG ratio of 0.3 and notes a cluster of upward earnings revisions from analysts.
Summary
Expand Energy reported fourth-quarter results that generally exceeded expectations on key cash-flow and production metrics, achieved meaningful net-debt reduction and sustained sizeable shareholder returns in 2025. Management kept 2026 guidance intact while prioritizing further debt reduction and refining its capital-allocation framework. The company’s operating moves in the Haynesville and a slate of analyst target changes and internal leadership shifts contribute to an evolving market narrative around the stock.