Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Stephens lifts EQT price target to $71, cites capital efficiency; mixed analyst notes follow earnings beat

EQT delivered stronger-than-expected 2025 cash flow and lower well costs, while 2026 guidance shows modest production drag and higher capex

By Maya Rios EQT
Stephens lifts EQT price target to $71, cites capital efficiency; mixed analyst notes follow earnings beat
EQT

Stephens raised its price target on EQT to $71 from $70 and kept an Overweight rating after the natgas producer reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that outperformed consensus. EQT beat estimates across production, cash flow per share and free cash flow, drove lower well costs, and generated robust free cash flow for the year. Guidance for 2026 showed production slightly below consensus and capex modestly above estimates. Additional company disclosures included derivative gains, net cash settlements from hedges and a 2026 short-term incentive plan.

Key Points

  • Stephens raised its EQT price target to $71 from $70 and kept an Overweight rating; EQT trades near its 52-week high of $62.23 with average analyst targets indicating upside.
  • Q4 2025 results beat consensus: production +3%, cash flow per share +10%, free cash flow +22%; capex was 4% below consensus. Full-year free cash flow reached $2.65 billion, about $500 million above cumulative consensus.
  • 2026 guidance showed production 1% below consensus for Q1 and 3% below for the full year, with capex guidance 4% and 3% above estimates; EQT allocated approximately $610 million to growth projects and expects net debt to fall below $5 billion by year-end 2026.

Overview

Stephens has increased its price target on EQT Corp. to $71 from $70 and retained an Overweight recommendation, following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results. According to InvestingPro data, EQT shares are trading near their 52-week high of $62.23, while the mean analyst target implies further upside.

Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results

EQT reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that outpaced consensus estimates in several key metrics. Production came in 3% above expectations, cash flow per share exceeded estimates by 10%, and free cash flow beat consensus by 22%. Capital expenditures for the quarter were 4% below consensus.

For the full year, EQT generated $2.65 billion in free cash flow, a result roughly $500 million higher than the cumulative consensus for 2025. That level of cash generation corresponds to a free cash flow yield of about 7%, which the company and observers cite as supporting a strong shareholder yield and a run of consecutive dividend increases over the past four years.

Operational efficiency and cost trends

Well costs per foot declined by $130 in 2025, a reduction of 13% versus the prior period. The company attributed the unit-cost improvement to faster drilling and completion activity that improved capital efficiency in the fourth quarter.

InvestingPro characterizes EQT’s financial health as "GOOD," with particularly high scores in price momentum and growth metrics.

2026 guidance and capital allocation

EQT’s guidance for first-quarter 2026 and for the full year 2026 showed production targets that are modestly below consensus - 1% below for Q1 and 3% below for the full year - while capital expenditure guidance was above estimates by 4% for the first quarter and 3% for the full year.

The company set aside approximately $610 million for high-return growth projects, some of which are expected to increase EBITDA without adding to production volumes. Management also expects net debt to fall below its long-term target of $5 billion by the end of 2026.

Derivative activity, hedges and compensation plan

In additional disclosures, EQT said it expects a $114 million gain from derivatives for Q4 2025, and anticipates net cash settlements on derivatives to total $35 million. The company also called attention to $44 million in net cash settlements associated with NYMEX natural gas hedge positions.

The Management Development and Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Plan, under which executives and employees will be eligible for annual bonuses tied to specific performance goals.

Analyst commentary and other corporate activity

In separate analyst notes, Stephens is also reported to have lowered a previous price target for EQT to $68 while maintaining an Overweight rating and observing that the firm’s production estimates are slightly above company guidance. UBS reiterated a Buy rating with a $76 price target ahead of EQT’s fourth-quarter earnings report.

In a different line of business, EQT Life Sciences co-led a 2ef51 million funding round for Exciva intended to advance an Alzheimer’s therapy into Phase 2 clinical trials, joining several other investment partners in the financing.


Summary

EQT beat consensus on several 2025 operating and cash metrics, drove material cost reductions per foot drilled, and produced strong free cash flow that supports shareholder returns. Guidance for 2026 showed slightly lower production versus consensus and somewhat higher capex, while the company plans targeted investment in projects expected to lift EBITDA. The company also disclosed derivative gains, hedge settlements and a new short-term incentive plan for 2026. Analyst notes after the report were mixed, with price-target movement in both directions across firms.

Risks

  • 2026 production guidance came in below consensus (1% below for Q1, 3% below for full year), a near-term headwind for production-sensitive markets such as natural gas and midstream services.
  • Capital expenditure guidance is modestly above estimates (4% above for Q1, 3% above for full year), which could affect capital allocation dynamics and investor expectations in energy and financial markets.
  • Derivative positions and hedge settlements create variability: while EQT expects a $114 million derivatives gain for Q4 2025 and specified net cash settlements, derivative outcomes and hedge realizations introduce cash-flow timing and market exposure considerations for the natural gas sector.

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