Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Stephens Cuts Affirm Price Target to $65, Cites Peer Multiple Compression Despite Strong Q2 Results

Analyst trims valuation on sector-driven multiple pressure while Affirm posts better-than-expected top- and bottom-line metrics and raises FY26 guidance

By Nina Shah AFRM
Stephens Cuts Affirm Price Target to $65, Cites Peer Multiple Compression Despite Strong Q2 Results
AFRM

Stephens reduced its price target for Affirm Holdings Inc. to $65 from $75 and kept an Equal Weight rating, attributing the move to compression in peer multiples even after Affirm delivered fiscal Q2 results that beat estimates and lifted fiscal 2026 guidance. Other broker moves were mixed, with UBS, Needham and Citizens issuing varied targets and ratings.

Key Points

  • Stephens cut its price target on Affirm to $65 from $75 and kept an Equal Weight rating, attributing the change to peer multiple compression.
  • Affirm’s fiscal Q2 results topped expectations: revenue of $1.12 billion (up 30% year-over-year), GMV growth of 36%, and EPS of $0.37 versus a $0.27 forecast.
  • Other analysts showed mixed responses: UBS set a $78 target with Neutral, Needham lowered its target to $85 (Buy), and Citizens maintained a Market Outperform rating with a $105 target.

Stephens has lowered its 12-month price target on Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) to $65.00 from $75.00, while retaining an Equal Weight rating on the buy-now-pay-later specialist. The firm identified peer multiple compression as the primary reason for the reduction, even as Affirm reported a fiscal second quarter that outperformed analyst expectations.

Affirm’s stock has fallen 20.17% year-to-date. InvestingPro data cited by Stephens shows the share price at $59.42, trading slightly above the platform’s Fair Value estimate.

On results, Affirm delivered revenue of $1.12 billion for the fiscal second quarter, a 30% increase year-over-year and ahead of Stephens’ $1.05 billion estimate. The company’s gross merchandise volume, or GMV, expanded 36% year-over-year, exceeding both its guidance range and Stephens’ projection of 30% growth.

Stephens also highlighted revenue less transaction costs of $543 million, up 29% year-over-year and above its internal forecast of $518 million. Management raised the company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook, moving GMV guidance from a prior expectation of over $47.5 billion to a new range of $48.3 billion to $48.85 billion. Adjusted operating margin guidance was tightened and nudged higher, from greater than 27.1% to a range of 27.4% to 28.1%.

The Stephens note emphasized that credit performance is stable, pointing to strong results from post-2022 vintages after excluding Peloton-related activity. The firm underlined that Affirm continues to display robust growth and has multiple avenues for expanding its retail-partner model.


Additional analyst activity around Affirm reflected a spectrum of views. The company’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 results included earnings per share of $0.37, beating a $0.27 forecast, and revenue of $1.12 billion, which the article notes also compared to an anticipated $1.06 billion figure cited by other estimates.

UBS adjusted its price target to $78 while maintaining a Neutral rating, pointing to considerations around the company’s growth outlook. Needham trimmed its target to $85 from $100 but stayed with a Buy rating, citing headwinds related to warrants. Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $105 price target, calling out Affirm’s notable GMV expansion and consistent performance. Collectively, these moves signal a mixed reception from the analyst community: some firms flagged challenges while others emphasized the company’s strong growth trajectory.

For investors assessing Affirm, recent developments present both positive operational indicators and valuation pressures from the broader peer group. The company’s improved guidance and better-than-expected quarterly results support its growth narrative, while external valuation dynamics and differing analyst views contribute to ongoing uncertainty around near-term stock performance.


Bottom line - Stephens’ reduction of its price target to $65 largely reflects sector-level multiple compression rather than deterioration in Affirm’s reported operating or credit metrics, which, according to the firm, remain healthy.

Risks

  • Peer multiple compression affecting valuation - impacts fintech and broader financials sector.
  • Warrant-related headwinds noted by Needham - could influence investor returns and affect capital markets sentiment within payments and specialty finance.
  • Divergent analyst views on growth outlook - creates uncertainty for equity investors in Affirm and similar BNPL/payment companies.

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