Overview
Stephens raised its price target on Simpson Manufacturing (NYSE: SSD) to $200.00 from $187.00 while leaving its rating at Equal Weight. The firm cited the company's fourth-quarter performance, which exceeded both Stephens' internal forecasts and consensus estimates, as the primary reason for the upward revision.
Quarterly performance and margin drivers
Simpson Manufacturing reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.4% for the quarter, a result that outpaced Stephens' 18.1% estimate and the Street's 17.4% expectation. Stephens attributed the stronger margin to favorable price/cost dynamics and announced operating cost savings. The firm also pointed to higher pricing in North America and gains from foreign exchange as contributors to the better-than-expected results.
Guidance for calendar 2026
Company guidance for calendar year 2026 projects an operating margin of approximately 20% at the midpoint, which Stephens noted is in line with analyst estimates. The guidance explicitly incorporates expected foreign exchange impacts, higher depreciation and amortization expense, and gains from land sales. Management's outlook also assumes around $40 million in carryover pricing from 2025 price increases, concentrated primarily in the first half of 2026, and assumes U.S. housing starts remain relatively flat year-over-year.
Reported financials
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Simpson Manufacturing reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.35, above the forecast of $1.22. Revenue for the quarter was $539.3 million, exceeding the anticipated $530.7 million. These results underscore the company's outperformance relative to analyst expectations for the period.
Analyst activity and corporate actions
Aside from Stephens' price-target increase and maintained Equal Weight rating, no analyst upgrades or downgrades were mentioned in the available updates. The company did not report any recent mergers or acquisitions in the disclosures referenced by Stephens.
Implications
The price-target adjustment reflects Stephens' recalibration of value based on stronger profitability and explicit assumptions embedded in 2026 guidance, including carryover pricing and flat housing-starts assumptions. The maintained Equal Weight rating suggests the firm views the upside as limited relative to the risks and the broader market opportunity set.
Key points
- Stephens raised Simpson Manufacturing's price target to $200 from $187 and kept an Equal Weight rating.
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 19.4%, above both Stephens' 18.1% estimate and the Street's 17.4% expectation, driven by North American pricing, FX benefits and cost savings.
- 2026 guidance targets roughly a 20% operating margin at the midpoint and assumes about $40 million in carryover pricing and relatively flat U.S. housing starts; impacts noted include higher depreciation and amortization and land sale gains.
Risks and uncertainties
- Foreign exchange exposure - Guidance explicitly incorporates FX impacts, indicating that currency swings could materially affect reported results.
- Higher depreciation and amortization - Increased D&A is included in the company outlook and could weigh on operating profit if not offset by pricing or cost reductions.
- Dependence on carryover pricing and housing-start assumptions - The 2026 outlook relies on approximately $40 million in price carryover and assumes U.S. housing starts remain flat; deviation from these assumptions could alter outcomes.
Conclusion
Stephens' increase to a $200 price target for Simpson Manufacturing follows a quarter of stronger-than-expected profitability and revenue, with company guidance pointing to a mid-point operating margin near 20% for 2026. While the firm raised its target, it left the rating unchanged at Equal Weight, reflecting a balance between improved margin dynamics and acknowledged risks tied to FX, depreciation and housing market assumptions.