Scotiabank has cut its price target for GFL Environmental to $56.00 from $57.00 but left its Sector Outperform recommendation unchanged, citing currency-related pressures reflected in the companys 2026 guidance.
The banks revised outlook comes amid a market price that remains well below Scotiabanks target: GFL shares were at $44.05 at the time of the report. Analysts price targets for the stock span a range from $46.40 to $65.89, according to the data included in the banks review.
Scotiabank said it lowered its forecasts to account for the exchange-rate headwinds embedded in GFLs guidance for 2026. The lender noted, however, that on an FX-adjusted basis the companys guidance appears robust, meaning that the underlying operational outlook is not materially weaker after stripping out currency effects.
GFL delivered better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by a strong showing in its special waste segment. The companys performance helped deliver a notable adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% for the period, and revenue rose by 7.3% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
Despite the positive quarter, GFL continues to navigate headwinds from commodity prices and, increasingly, foreign exchange movements. InvestingPro data cited in the analysis indicated a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 for the company, a signal of strong financial condition amid these external pressures.
Scotiabank also highlighted GFLs corporate transition plans: the company intends to adopt U.S. GAAP accounting and report in U.S. dollars around 2027. That change follows GFLs recent decision to move its headquarters to the United States and could make the firm eligible for inclusion in additional U.S. stock indices.
On valuation, Scotiabank pegged GFL at an attractive 13.0x EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates, versus a peer group at 14.8x. The bank said the current valuation appropriately factors in minority stakes on GFLs balance sheet that are worth roughly $5-$6 per share at cost.
Separately, InvestingPro data presented a current EV/EBITDA figure of 14.6x and a market capitalization of $15.8 billion for GFL. The banks research note also pointed to broader proprietary resources available to investors, including a Pro Research Report covering GFL as part of a library of more than 1,400 reports on top U.S. equities.
Looking ahead, GFL offered an optimistic outlook for 2026 with revenue guidance of $7 billion, a target that would represent an 8% increase from the prior period. Managements strategic initiativessuch as expansion in the U.S. and efforts to boost operational efficiencywere cited as contributors to the companys recent performance and to the guidance for next year.
These updates have drawn investor attention and are relevant to market participants tracking sanitation, waste management and related midstream or industrial services sectors, given the links between commodity costs, foreign exchange, and operating margins in the business model.
Key points
- Scotiabank lowers GFL price target to $56 from $57 but keeps a Sector Outperform rating; shares are trading at $44.05 and analyst targets range from $46.40 to $65.89.
- GFL reported a stronger-than-expected Q4 led by special waste, achieving a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin and 7.3% revenue growth for the quarter; 2026 revenue guidance is $7 billion (an 8% increase).
- Scotiabank views GFL as attractively valued at 13.0x EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates versus peers at 14.8x; InvestingPro shows an EV/EBITDA of 14.6x and a market cap of $15.8 billion.
Risks and uncertainties
- Foreign exchange volatility - Currency movements are cited as a direct headwind to GFLs reported guidance and have prompted Scotiabank to reduce forecasts; this risk affects companies reporting across multiple currencies and international operations.
- Commodity price exposure - Ongoing pressure from commodity prices is listed as a continuing challenge for GFL, influencing margins in the waste and industrial services sectors.
- Accounting and listing changes - GFLs planned move to U.S. GAAP and U.S. dollar reporting around 2027, tied to its headquarters relocation, could alter index inclusion and investor composition, introducing execution and timing uncertainty.