Scotiabank on Thursday trimmed its price target on SmartStop Self Storage (NYSE:SMA) to $35.00 from $36.00, while maintaining a Sector Outperform recommendation on the self-storage REIT. The revised target corresponds to roughly a 12.4% upside from SmartStop's prevailing share price of $31.14, which the broker notes is trading near the lower bound of its 52-week range.
The Canadian bank's research team highlighted SmartStop's capacity to mitigate losses associated with customer churn by pushing through rate increases for existing customers - a leavening factor that the analysts say differentiates the REIT from many peers. That pricing approach, Scotiabank argues, helps underpin SmartStop's current 5.24% dividend yield, an element the firm sees as attractive in today's market context.
Scotiabank's projections include a 1.4% same-store revenue compound annual growth rate for SmartStop in 2026/2027. The firm contrasts that with a 0.9% same-store revenue CAGR it expects, on average, among competitors that are more exposed to neutral or negative churn effects. In addition, the bank anticipates extra earnings from the planned integration of Argus, a third-party manager, in 2027.
According to Scotiabank, the Argus integration should contribute to about a 5% year-over-year increase in funds from operations per share in 2027. That elevation would sit above roughly 3% average FFO per share growth the bank models for SmartStop's self-storage REIT peers in the same period.
Corporate actions announced by SmartStop in recent weeks provide additional context for analysts. The REIT declared a monthly dividend for January 2026 at a rate of $0.13589041 per share, which reflects a targeted annualized payout of $1.60 per share. That dividend is scheduled to be paid on February 13, 2026, with a record date of January 30, 2026. The company also declared a comparable dividend for December 2025, set for payment on January 15, 2026.
On the acquisition front, SmartStop added a self-storage property in Winter Garden, Florida, comprising approximately 72,100 net rentable square feet and 515 storage units. The firm said the purchase strengthens its footprint in the Orlando metropolitan area.
Adding to the analyst coverage mix, Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on SmartStop Self Storage and kept a $40.00 price target. Stifel cited the company's strong post-IPO performance and a differentiated positioning, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. Despite noting a broader pullback in the storage sector, Stifel maintained a favourable view of SmartStop's prospects.
Investors and sector watchers will likely balance the modest downward revision in valuation from Scotiabank against the REIT's yield, the estimated outperformance in same-store revenue, and the incremental FFO contribution from the Argus integration. The combination of recurring dividends, targeted revenue growth, and an acquisition that expands local market density frames the current analyst narrative on SmartStop's near-term outlook.
Key takeaways:
- Scotiabank cut its SmartStop price target to $35 from $36 but kept a Sector Outperform rating.
- The bank emphasizes SmartStop's customer-rate strategy as a defense against churn and notes a 5.24% dividend yield.
- Projected contributions from Argus integration in 2027 should support about 5% year-over-year FFO per share growth, above peer expectations.