Analyst Ratings February 25, 2026

RBC Upholds Outperform on AdaptHealth After Q4 Miss; $13 Target Intact

Analyst keeps positive rating as company absorbs early costs tied to a new capitated arrangement and reports mixed fourth-quarter results

By Sofia Navarro AHCO
RBC Upholds Outperform on AdaptHealth After Q4 Miss; $13 Target Intact
AHCO

RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and a $13.00 price target on AdaptHealth Corp. (NASDAQ: AHCO) after the stock slid roughly 14% following the company’s fourth-quarter results and forward guidance for 2026. The decline followed a sizable EPS shortfall even as revenue modestly exceeded expectations. RBC flagged the transition to a capitated arrangement and implementation-related investments as drivers of the early-year softness but said management is taking steps to reduce execution risk.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating on AdaptHealth and maintained a $13.00 price target.
  • The stock dropped about 14% after fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance; shares closed at $9.06 versus $10.29 previously.
  • AdaptHealth reported an EPS of -$0.76 versus an expected $0.36, while revenue of $846.3 million modestly exceeded the $832.5 million estimate.

RBC maintains Outperform and $13 target

RBC Capital has maintained an Outperform rating on AdaptHealth Corp. shares (NASDAQ: AHCO) and left its price target at $13.00. The firm reiterated its view after the company released fourth-quarter results and initial guidance for 2026, events that coincided with a sharp move lower in the stock.

Market reaction and price movement

Shares of AdaptHealth declined about 14% on the trading day following the release of the fourth-quarter report and updated guidance. The stock closed at $9.06, down from the prior session’s close of $10.29. According to InvestingPro Tips cited by the reporting, the shares suffered notable losses over the prior week and are characterized as trading in oversold territory.

Drivers of the pullback

RBC attributed the drop to a combination of a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings print and what the market perceived as a steeper ramp to the company’s 2026 guidance. The guidance incorporates AdaptHealth’s newly announced capitated arrangement, and RBC noted that recent investments to implement that arrangement are weighing on the company’s early-year outlook.

Company actions and analyst view

RBC said management is taking appropriate early measures intended to de-risk the implementation of the capitated arrangement. Despite the short-term drag, the firm kept its Outperform rating and the $13 price objective.

Valuation perspective

Analysis from InvestingPro noted that, based on a Fair Value assessment, AHCO appears undervalued at current levels. The commentary pointed investors to broader Pro Research resources for additional analysis covering AHCO and other U.S. equities.

Fourth-quarter financials

AdaptHealth’s fourth-quarter 2025 results showed a large discrepancy versus analyst expectations for earnings per share. The company reported EPS of -$0.76, versus an expected $0.36, a variance described as a -311.11% surprise. On the top line, the company reported revenue of $846.3 million, exceeding the forecasted $832.5 million by 1.66%.

The contrast between the EPS shortfall and the modest revenue beat produced a mixed financial picture, with revenue beating expectations while profitability fell short of consensus forecasts. There were no new merger or acquisition announcements accompanying the earnings release; instead, investors and analysts focused on the reported results and the company’s near-term strategic initiatives.

Outlook for analysts and investors

Market participants will likely weigh the firmness of management’s execution of the capitated arrangement and the pace at which implementation costs abate against the company’s revenue performance. Analyst reactions to the earnings and guidance may shape subsequent evaluations of AdaptHealth’s financial trajectory.

Risks

  • Execution risk related to implementation of the new capitated arrangement, which is affecting early-year results - impacts investors and healthcare services sector.
  • Significant EPS shortfall compared with analyst expectations, which could prompt further negative investor reactions - impacts equity investors and financial analysts covering healthcare equities.
  • Near-term investment spending to support the capitated model is weighing on guidance and could pressure short-term profitability - impacts company cash flow and market sentiment in the healthcare equipment and services sector.

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