Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

RBC trims Shopify price target to $170, keeps Outperform rating amid mixed signals

Analyst lowers target while citing solid revenue growth and AI potential, as other brokers diverge on valuation

By Hana Yamamoto SHOP
RBC trims Shopify price target to $170, keeps Outperform rating amid mixed signals
SHOP

RBC Capital reduced its price target for Shopify to $170 from $200 but retained an Outperform rating, citing a fundamentally strong quarter alongside concerns about free cash flow and taxes. Shopify reported robust revenue growth, and guidance points to accelerating top-line momentum, even as market anxieties around AI and divergent analyst actions weigh on the stock.

Key Points

  • RBC cut Shopify's price target to $170 from $200 but retained an Outperform rating, citing a "fundamentally strong quarter" alongside free cash flow and tax considerations.
  • Shopify's fourth-quarter revenue topped consensus by 2.2%, and the company recorded 30.14% revenue growth over the last twelve months to $11.56 billion; first-quarter guidance implies revenue growth accelerating to a four-year high.
  • Analysts are split on valuation and momentum: several firms adjusted targets and ratings in both directions following Shopify's results, reflecting differing emphases on execution versus valuation.

RBC Capital on Tuesday lowered its price objective for Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) to $170.00 from $200.00 while keeping an Outperform rating on the e-commerce platform provider. The firm framed its action against a backdrop of strong operating results and a set of balance-sheet and market sentiment considerations.

Shopify's shares are trading at $118.71, down from a prior close of $127.24, representing a year-to-date decline of 26.25% as of the latest quote cited by RBC. The broker described the company's most recent quarter as a "fundamentally strong quarter," even though it flagged some issues around free cash flow and tax items.

On the top line, Shopify's fourth-quarter revenue exceeded consensus estimates by 2.2%. That outperformance complements the platform's 30.14% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months, taking annual revenue to $11.56 billion.

RBC highlighted Shopify's guidance for the first quarter, noting that management's outlook implies revenue growth accelerating to a four-year high and outpacing analyst consensus. The firm views that trajectory as a positive data point, even as it trimmed its valuation target.

The broker also observed that Shopify shares appear to be influenced by what it called "broader AI disruption fears" in the market. Despite those investor concerns, RBC said the company is "likely to be an AI beneficiary" over the long term and suggested that continued growth combined with AI traction could help stabilize the company's valuation.

Independent platform metrics referenced by market research tools give Shopify high marks on balance-sheet and operating metrics. In particular, InvestingPro assigns Shopify a "GREAT" overall financial health score, with especially strong ratings for growth and profitability.


Analyst reactions and peer moves

Other brokerages have responded to Shopify's recent results with a range of rating and target adjustments, reflecting differing views on valuation versus momentum:

  • Citizens reduced its price target to $160 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating.
  • Mizuho upgraded Shopify to Outperform, citing what it called superb execution and strong momentum.
  • Stifel cut its target to $115 and kept a Hold rating after acknowledging strong performance and an upbeat top-line outlook driven by enterprise and international expansion.
  • DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating with a $195 target, pointing to 31% year-over-year growth in 2025 and management's expectation for more than 30% growth in the first quarter of 2026.
  • Truist Securities lowered its price target to $110, calling out valuation concerns while still recognizing strong underlying business fundamentals.

These moves illustrate a split among analysts between those focused on execution and near-term growth momentum and those emphasizing valuation constraints amid heightened market uncertainty.


Recent operating detail

Shopify reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results that included gross merchandise volume expanding 29% year-over-year on an ex-foreign-exchange basis. Management commentary and guidance have prompted both upward and downward reactions across the sell-side, producing a wide range of price targets and ratings.


What this means for investors

RBC's decision to lower the price target while keeping an Outperform rating underscores a view that the company retains durable growth characteristics and potential upside from AI, but that valuation and cash-flow clarity remain considerations for near-term price discovery. The divergence among other brokers suggests that investor attention will remain focused on execution, margin and cash-flow trends as well as how market narratives around AI affect multiples.

Risks

  • Free cash flow and tax items noted by RBC present a financial-risk consideration that could affect investor confidence and valuation - impacts technology, e-commerce and capital markets sectors.
  • "Broader AI disruption fears" in the market have pressured Shopify's share price despite RBC's view that the company is "likely to be an AI beneficiary" long term, creating sentiment-driven volatility in technology and software equities.
  • Divergent analyst assessments and a wide range of price targets create uncertainty around near-term valuation, which can influence trading in e-commerce and growth-oriented stocks.

More from Analyst Ratings

HSBC Lowers Synopsys Rating to Hold, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Feb 21, 2026 DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026