RBC Capital this week reduced its price target on Gartner to $175.00 from $250.00 but kept a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm highlighted an easing in contract value (CV) growth and other sales metrics as the primary reasons behind the downward revision.
Gartner shares are trading at $150.02, a level that reflects a 70.7% decline over the past year. The stock has also moved sharply lower in the short term, falling 29.1% in the last week. According to InvestingPro data cited by RBC, the stock is currently trading below its Fair Value.
RBC singled out several operational trends that have weakened the growth outlook. Contract value growth excluding government contracts decelerated to 4% from 6% in the third quarter of 2025, the research note said. The firm also observed declining wallet retention and reported a mid-single-digit drop in new business. Those indicators align with Gartner’s reported overall revenue growth of 5.24% over the last twelve months, which RBC views as slowing.
On the basis of these sales and retention trends, RBC expects contract value growth outside the government segment to remain subdued in the near term, citing challenging selling conditions. The bank noted that reduced visibility into the timing and strength of any CV recovery was a key driver of the cut in the price target.
Despite those headwinds, RBC expects the company to exceed what it characterizes as conservative fiscal year 2026 guidance through stock repurchases. Management’s aggressive buyback activity has pushed shareholder yield higher even though Gartner does not pay a dividend, InvestingPro tips noted in the firm’s commentary.
RBC’s revised target equates to 12 times its calendar year 2027 EPS estimate of $14.56 for Gartner. The analyst observed that, while valuation metrics make the stock appear inexpensive on a multiples basis, it "likely remains range bound near-term." The downward revision also referenced potential disruption risks from generative artificial intelligence as a factor that could complicate Gartner’s growth trajectory.
In related corporate results, Gartner reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat expectations, posting EPS of $3.94 versus analyst forecasts of $3.51. The company’s ability to top consensus estimates was noted in commentary surrounding the release, though the stock experienced a notable pre-market decline following the results. Market reaction and the details discussed on the earnings call were framed as part of the broader set of developments investors and analysts are monitoring.
Overall, RBC’s action reflects a balance between deteriorating demand-side indicators and shareholder-return actions by management. The firm’s view emphasizes limited clarity about a return to stronger contract value growth and highlights the potential for AI-related disruption, even as buybacks provide a partial offset to operational softness.