Analyst action
RBC Capital reduced its price target on Home Depot Inc. to $363 from $366 while leaving the shares at a Sector Perform rating. The broker's adjustment came amid a modest revision to its 2026 outlook for the home improvement retailer. At the time of RBC's note, Home Depot was trading at $383.52 and had a market capitalization of $381.8 billion, meaning the stock remained above the newly lowered target.
Near-term estimate changes
RBC trimmed its first-half 2026 projections after reviewing peer results and recent macroeconomic indicators that, in the firm's view, imply little improvement in housing conditions. The firm now models first-quarter comparable sales growth of 1.5%, down from an earlier 2.0% forecast, and reduced its adjusted earnings per share projection for the quarter to $3.66 from $3.72.
For fiscal 2026 as a whole, RBC lowered its comparable sales growth estimate to 2.2% from 2.5% and cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $15.13 from $15.25. The consensus estimate for 2026 adjusted EPS is $15.10, according to the same dataset RBC referenced. These revisions are the basis for the firm's updated valuation and guidance for investors.
Dividends and shareholder metrics
InvestingPro data cited by the firm notes Home Depot has paid a dividend for 39 consecutive years, and the company has raised its dividend for 16 straight years. The stock yields 2.4% on a dividend basis. These durability metrics were included alongside RBC's modeling as indicators of the company's capital return record through differing market cycles.
Fourth-quarter outlook and timing
RBC expects a quiet fourth quarter after Home Depot reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and provided preliminary targets for 2026 at its investor day on December 9. The firm projects fourth-quarter comparable sales of minus 0.2% and adjusted EPS of $2.56. Home Depot is scheduled to report next on February 24, 2026, providing the next direct data point to test these assumptions.
Valuation perspective
RBC's $363 target is derived from roughly 24 times the firm's revised 2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $15.13. That implied multiple sits slightly below Home Depot's then-current price-to-earnings ratio of 26. InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment referenced by the note indicates the stock may be trading above fair value at current levels, per that evaluation.
Other analysts and market positioning
Independent analyst activity around Home Depot has remained active. UBS reaffirmed a Buy rating and cited potential for meaningful upside when the home improvement cycle recovers, while Truist Securities raised its price target to $390 and kept a Buy rating, observing that sales trends have been stable though below prior expectations. UBS also moved its price target down to $430 from $445 after the company's Investor and Analyst Conference, and DA Davidson lowered its target to $407, characterizing Home Depot's handling of its 2026 outlook as prudent. These mixed responses underscore a range of views on timing and magnitude of housing-led demand recovery.
Retail partnerships and product placement
Separately, SKYX Platforms Corp announced the launch of a patented ceiling plug-and-play product, the SKYFAN & Turbo Heater, at Home Depot. The rollout includes a dedicated SkyPlug branding page on HomeDepot.com intended to increase visibility and demand for the product through fiscal 2026. That commercial activity illustrates ongoing vendor and merchandising strategies tied to the retailer's distribution footprint.
What investors should watch
- Home Depot's February 24, 2026 earnings release for updated comparable sales and margin trends.
- Whether peer results and macro data show any meaningful inflection in housing activity that would validate or reverse RBC's near-term sales downgrades.
- Investor reception to management's 2026 guidance following the December 9 investor day and any subsequent detail on cost pass-through or promotional cadence.