RBC Capital this week raised its price target on Moderna Inc. to $30 from $25, while keeping a Sector Perform rating on the biotechnology company. At the same time, Moderna shares are trading noticeably higher than that target, with the stock quoted at $44.46. InvestingPro data referenced by the firm indicates Moderna is trading near its Fair Value, and the company carries a market capitalization of $17.07 billion.
Analysts at RBC described Moderna’s fourth-quarter results as relatively incremental, noting that the top-line numbers were largely pre-reported in early January. The quarter produced an earnings per share (EPS) result of -2.11, which was ahead of the consensus expectation of -2.62. Quarterly revenue reached $678 million, compared with analysts’ projections of $662.84 million.
RBC highlighted a significant regulatory development that has complicated Moderna’s near-term outlook. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a refusal-to-file decision on Moderna’s flu vaccine submission. Moderna has expressed frustration with that decision, pointing out that the same submission has been accepted by regulators in the European Union, Australia and Canada. Company commentary raised broader concerns about whether the FDA’s decision could slow domestic innovation and curb investment in novel technologies.
In its comparison to prior approvals, Moderna referenced Fluzone HD, which it said was approved using the regulatory approach of statistical superiority to a standard-dose flu vaccine. Moderna also said it has data indicating superior immunogenicity versus Fluzone HD.
Moderna has requested a Type A meeting with the FDA to explore a possible path forward; such a meeting could be scheduled within 30 days. RBC noted that a reversal of the refusal-to-file decision at this stage appears unlikely.
On the clinical front, Moderna flagged several potential near-term pipeline milestones. The company indicated Phase III data for its melanoma program, Phase II data for renal cell carcinoma and Phase III data for norovirus could all be 2026 events. Separately, its Phase II trial for bladder cancer is reported as fully enrolled. Moderna also said it expects its top line to grow by up to 10% in 2026.
Balance-sheet metrics cited by RBC and InvestingPro point to financial flexibility as Moderna navigates these regulatory and development uncertainties. InvestingPro’s data show Moderna carries more cash than debt and reports a current ratio of 3.29, which the firm described as supportive for the company while it manages regulatory engagement and ongoing trials.
Summary
RBC raised its price target on Moderna to $30 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. The firm said Q4 results were modest, the FDA refused to file the company’s flu vaccine application while other regulators accepted it, and Moderna is pursuing a Type A meeting with the FDA. Several clinical readouts may occur in 2026, and the company projects up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. Financial metrics indicate more cash than debt and a current ratio of 3.29.
Key points
- RBC raised its price target for Moderna to $30 from $25 but kept a Sector Perform rating; shares trade at $44.46 and the market cap is $17.07 billion.
- Moderna reported Q4 EPS of -2.11 and revenue of $678 million, both beating the cited analyst expectations.
- Regulatory friction with the FDA over the flu vaccine coexists with acceptance of the filing in the EU, Australia and Canada; a Type A meeting with the FDA has been requested.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory risk - The FDA’s refusal-to-file decision for the flu vaccine introduces uncertainty that could affect U.S. commercialization and investment decisions in vaccine technologies.
- Clinical and timing risk - Planned Phase II and III readouts cited as potential 2026 events could be delayed or yield outcomes different from expectations, affecting the company’s growth trajectory.
- Valuation and market risk - With the share price trading well above RBC’s target, valuation mismatches between market pricing and analyst targets may increase investor sensitivity to short-term developments.
Investors and market participants will likely watch the requested Type A meeting with the FDA, the timing and outcome of the 2026 clinical readouts, and any further updates to guidance or analyst coverage as the company advances its programs and addresses regulatory questions.