Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

RBC Keeps Outperform on MongoDB, Flags AI Adoption and Upcoming Q4 Report as Key Catalysts

Analysts point to Atlas momentum, go-to-market shifts under CEO CJ Desai, and early-stage AI product uptake ahead of fiscal Q4 2026 results

By Avery Klein MDB
RBC Keeps Outperform on MongoDB, Flags AI Adoption and Upcoming Q4 Report as Key Catalysts
MDB

RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and a $500 price target on MongoDB ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, citing the database’s positioning for GenAI and agentic AI workloads. The firm highlighted four investor focal points—Atlas traction with AI-native customers, go-to-market commentary under new CEO CJ Desai, timing of AI-driven revenue benefits from newer SKUs, and initial fiscal 2027 guidance—while noting AI has not yet driven meaningful revenue. The stock trades around $357.65 with a market capitalization near $29.41 billion, and multiple broker actions cited continued analyst optimism around MongoDB’s AI strategy and Atlas growth.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $500 price target on MongoDB ahead of fiscal Q4 2026 results; the stock was trading at $357.65 with a $29.41 billion market cap per InvestingPro data.
  • RBC identified four investor focal points: Atlas acceleration with AI-native customers, go-to-market changes under new CEO CJ Desai, timing of AI becoming an incremental P&L tailwind via newer AI SKUs, and initial fiscal 2027 guidance. These items affect the enterprise software, cloud services, and AI infrastructure sectors.
  • Multiple broker actions reflect optimism: BofA raised its price target to $500 citing 30% YoY Atlas revenue growth in fiscal Q3; Truist and Stifel maintained positive ratings after events and AI announcements, while MongoDB integrated Voyage AI embedding and reranking models to create a unified data intelligence layer.

RBC Capital has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on MongoDB and kept a $500.00 price target in place as the database company approaches its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release. The shares were trading at $357.65, with a market capitalization of $29.41 billion, according to InvestingPro data.

MongoDB is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 results on Monday, March 2nd, followed by a conference call at 5PM EST. RBC reiterated its view that MongoDB is well positioned to be the database of choice for teams building Generative AI and agentic AI applications, an argument that underpins the firm’s constructive stance.

RBC laid out four principal areas it expects investors to scrutinize when results arrive:

  • Whether traction with AI-native customers can translate into acceleration for MongoDB Atlas.
  • Management commentary on any go-to-market adjustments under new CEO CJ Desai.
  • The timing for when AI becomes an incremental tailwind to the profit and loss statement via broader adoption of MongoDB’s newer AI SKUs.
  • Initial guidance for fiscal 2027 and the implications for forward growth expectations.

RBC emphasized that, to date, AI has not meaningfully contributed to MongoDB’s revenue. The firm also noted the shares have performed well over the trailing 12-month period and appear less dislocated, while valuation remain relatively undemanding in RBC’s view. The research house continued to characterize the shares as an attractive buying opportunity.

On profitability, MongoDB has not been profitable over the last twelve months. InvestingPro analysis cited in the context of RBC’s note indicates that net income is expected to grow this year.

Investor interest appears broad. InvestingPro data show 33 analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting widespread optimism about the company’s near-term prospects.

Other broker activity and corporate product developments referenced by analysts include the following.

  • BofA Securities raised its price target for MongoDB to $500, citing 30% year-over-year growth in Atlas revenue during the company’s third fiscal quarter.
  • Truist Securities maintained a Buy rating with a $500 price target and expressed optimism about MongoDB’s market approach following the firm’s San Francisco event.
  • Stifel reiterated a Buy rating after MongoDB announced new AI capabilities at its user conference, including updates to Voyage AI models and the introduction of an Embedding and Reranking API on MongoDB Atlas.

MongoDB has also expanded its AI feature set by integrating Voyage AI’s embedding and reranking models into its database platform. The company describes this work as part of an effort to create a "unified data intelligence layer" for AI applications, and the integrated models are reported to outperform competitors on the public RTEB leaderboard.

Goldman Sachs has weighed in on AI-related risks and opportunities more broadly, applying a framework to assess how AI disruption could affect MongoDB alongside other companies. RBC’s note, together with the flurry of analyst responses and product announcements, frames investor attention around execution of AI-related product monetization, go-to-market changes under new leadership, and the timing of when these initiatives convert into material financial results.


What to watch at the Q4 report

Investors will be looking for signs that Atlas revenue can accelerate through AI-native customer wins, clarity on go-to-market shifts under CJ Desai, and management commentary that narrows the timing window for when newer AI SKUs become a meaningful P&L contributor. Initial fiscal 2027 guidance will also be scrutinized for forward-looking confirmation of the company’s trajectory.

Risks

  • AI has not yet meaningfully contributed to MongoDB’s revenue - the timing and magnitude of any AI-driven revenue uplift remain uncertain, impacting enterprise software and cloud revenue trajectories.
  • Potential changes in go-to-market strategy under new CEO CJ Desai could introduce execution risk as the company tries to monetize newer AI SKUs, affecting sales and marketing effectiveness in the cloud and software sectors.
  • Initial fiscal 2027 guidance will be a key point of uncertainty; if guidance disappoints, it could challenge the current bullish analyst stance and affect valuation in software and AI infrastructure markets.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026