RBC Capital has trimmed its price target on Upwork Inc. to $20.00 from $24.00 but maintained a Sector Perform rating, pointing to elevated execution risk in the company’s ongoing efforts to stabilize and grow its business. The analyst note cites uncertainty about the timing and shape of the recovery as a principal concern, even as some operating metrics are moving in the right direction.
According to InvestingPro data cited in the firm’s commentary, Upwork shares trade around $15.48 with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.19, a valuation that the data provider indicates may be below the stock’s Fair Value. RBC’s reassessment follows the company’s fourth-quarter report, which the firm characterized as displaying "encouraging directional indicators." However, RBC emphasized that the expected performance curve for the coming year appears steeper than previously modeled, leaving investors uncertain about whether management can deliver the necessary upside to meet turnaround objectives.
Upwork’s stock has shown a notable move higher over recent months, gaining 42.67% in the past six months. RBC highlighted multiple constructive datapoints underpinning that momentum, including a 49% quarter-over-quarter increase in Business Plus clients, a material AI-related revenue stream reportedly totaling $300 million in annual recurring revenue, lower churn, and the prospect of the first quarter-over-quarter increase in active clients in two years during Q1.
InvestingPro metrics referenced by RBC underline the company’s strong gross economics, with gross profit margins reported at 77.8%. The consensus analyst recommendation sits at 1.91, reflecting a generally favorable tilt among analysts. Management’s initiatives to return capital also factor into the outlook; RBC noted robust free cash flow that provides dry powder for potentially larger buybacks, and it flagged the Lifted integration as an incremental contributor expected in the second half of the fiscal year. Management continues to target 25% gross services value growth for the fiscal year.
InvestingPro data also suggests an active share repurchase posture by management and a solid free cash flow yield of 9%, elements RBC says support shareholder returns if execution remains on track. Still, the firm’s cautious stance centers on guidance for the first quarter that it interprets as indicating a more pronounced Enterprise transition than previously anticipated. That dynamic would require a larger ramp in the second half of the year, which RBC believes could be met with skepticism by investors given what it describes as "past execution challenges on Enterprise." The firm additionally noted AI-related headwinds in certain segments, particularly writing and translation services.
Analyst price targets for Upwork currently span a wide range, from $17 to $28, reflecting varied expectations about the company’s ability to convert improvements in growth and margins into sustainable, higher revenue and profitability. For investors seeking deeper, model-driven analysis, RBC and InvestingPro materials are referenced as sources of additional detail.
Separately, Upwork reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that outpaced Wall Street forecasts. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, versus an expected $0.31, and revenue of $198.4 million compared with the $197.25 million consensus. Following the quarter, several brokerages adjusted their price targets and ratings. Scotiabank lowered its target to $15.00 while keeping a Sector Perform rating and citing growth concerns. Canaccord Genuity trimmed its target to $22.00 but retained a Buy rating. Citizens revised its target to $22.00 and maintained a Market Perform opinion, noting limited visibility on enterprise revenue contributions. Conversely, Needham held firm on a Buy recommendation with a $25.00 target, projecting a steeper growth ramp later in the year.
These divergent actions by sell-side firms illustrate a split view about the pace and certainty of Upwork’s recovery: some see the current trajectory as constrained by execution risk in the enterprise channel and localized AI pressure, while others emphasize the company’s improving client metrics, margins, and cash generation as a platform for future upside.
What to watch next
- Progress on Enterprise client adoption versus management’s targets and the implied timing of the second-half ramp.
- Trajectories for AI-related revenue streams and any continued impact of AI on writing and translation services.
- Management’s pace of buybacks and the contribution from the Lifted integration in the second half of the fiscal year.