Analyst Ratings February 13, 2026

RBC Cuts Dutch Bros Price Target to $75 but Keeps Outperform Rating After Strong Q4 Results

Analyst trims valuation amid sector headwinds even as the coffee chain posts revenue beat, raises same-store sales outlook and sees potential for unit expansion

By Ajmal Hussain BROS
RBC Cuts Dutch Bros Price Target to $75 but Keeps Outperform Rating After Strong Q4 Results
BROS

RBC Capital lowered its 12-month price target for Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) to $75 from $80 while retaining an Outperform rating. The move follows a fourth-quarter performance that beat expectations and fiscal 2026 guidance that modestly exceeded investor concerns. Despite robust revenue growth and a stronger same-store sales outlook, RBC cited a pullback in appetite for growth restaurant stocks and headwinds to margins from commodity and build-to-suit costs.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital lowered its price target on Dutch Bros to $75 from $80 but maintained an Outperform rating; the stock trades at $51.19 with a P/E of 101.7.
  • Dutch Bros reported strong fourth-quarter results: adjusted EPS $0.17 versus $0.09 expected, revenue $444 million versus $423.79 million expected, and system-wide same-store sales growth of 7.7%.
  • Fiscal 2026 same-store sales guidance of 3-5% exceeded some investor expectations and the company highlighted potential unit expansion opportunities, including a new Los Angeles walk-up location - these developments affect retail, consumer discretionary and restaurant sector sentiment.

RBC Capital has adjusted its valuation on Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS), reducing the firms price target to $75.00 from $80.00 but leaving its Outperform recommendation unchanged. The stock is trading near $51.19 and carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 101.7 - a multiple that InvestingPro data flags as materially above the companys near-term earnings growth rate.

The change in the target follows Dutch Bros release of fourth-quarter results, which outpaced both consensus estimates and what RBC described as reduced buy-side expectations. Quarterly figures were strong on both the top and bottom lines, adding to an already notable 28.93% revenue expansion over the last twelve months.

Managements guidance for fiscal 2026 also came in ahead of some investor assumptions. The company forecast same-store sales growth of 3-5%, versus investor expectations the firm said had been nearer 2-4%. RBC suggested that the guidance may leave room for upside as the year unfolds. Separately, InvestingPro analysis indicates analysts expect net income to grow this year, with a consensus EPS forecast of $0.96 for fiscal 2025.

RBC pointed to potential growth catalysts, including the opening of a new walk-up location in Los Angeles that could broaden the companys addressable market relative to its current unit target of 7,000. At the same time, the firm called out margin pressures that are likely to temper near-term profitability: it projects an EBITDA margin decline of about 60 basis points year-over-year, attributing the pressure to elevated coffee prices, higher food costs and a mix shift toward build-to-suit locations.

Balance-sheet indicators present a mixed picture of financial stability. The company reports a current ratio of 1.52, which suggests liquid assets cover short-term obligations. Dutch Bros operates with leverage as well, carrying a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.58.

RBC described the trimmed price target as a recognition that growth restaurant stocks have been less favored by investors recently, yet the firm retained its Outperform stance given potential upside to financial projections across the year. That positioning sits alongside a broader analyst consensus rating of 1.38, a figure RBC notes falls between Strong Buy and Buy on the scale.

Valuation perspectives from InvestingPro indicate the stock is trading near its calculated Fair Value, with analyst targets in the market ranging from $63 to $95.


Additional context from the companys most recent quarter underscores the operational strength behind RBCs tempered optimism. Dutch Bros reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.17 for the fourth quarter of 2025, beating a projected $0.09. Quarterly revenue reached $444 million, above expectations of $423.79 million. The firm also delivered system-wide same-store sales growth of 7.7%, outperforming both Street consensus and investor estimates.

Market watchers have responded with a range of views. KeyBanc reiterated an Overweight rating on Dutch Bros and set a $77.00 price target, with the analyst highlighting the companys notable sales growth as a key justification for maintaining a favorable stance.

Taken together, the updates show a company that is expanding revenue rapidly and beating near-term expectations while also navigating margin headwinds and a valuation that may reflect elevated investor expectations. RBCs action to lower its price target appears to be primarily a function of changing market sentiment toward growth restaurants rather than a reversal of confidence in Dutch Bros underlying operating strength.

Risks

  • EBITDA margin pressure - RBC forecasts roughly a 60 basis-point year-over-year decline in EBITDA margin due to higher coffee and food costs and a mix shift to build-to-suit locations. This risk impacts profitability within the restaurant and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Valuation vulnerability - a P/E of 101.7 that InvestingPro identifies as meaningfully above near-term earnings growth creates sensitivity to earnings disappointments, affecting investor returns in the equity markets.
  • Market sentiment toward growth restaurants - RBC cited that growth-oriented restaurant stocks have been out of favor recently, which could limit multiple expansion even if operational results remain solid; this affects broader restaurant and retail investor appetite.

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