Summary
RBC Capital has opened coverage on Pfizer Inc. with an Underperform rating and a $25.00 price target, a view that sits beneath the stock's then-current trading level of $27.14. The firm projects material revenue erosion through 2030 and applies a trough multiple to reach its valuation, while recent company results and regulatory milestones offer countervailing signals. Several other brokerages hold differing stances on the stock, underscoring a split consensus among analysts.
RBC Capital's assessment
Analyst Trung Huynh and RBC Capital laid out a scenario in which Pfizer could face a $15 billion to $20 billion decline in revenue through 2030, with no clear pipeline replacements expected before 2028. The firm described management's outlook for stability through 2028 and subsequent growth as ambitious, citing constrained visibility around the pipeline.
RBC also pointed to Pfizer's obesity program as a relative laggard, arriving approximately three to five years after competitors and showing a reported efficacy of 12% compared with 16% from rival programs. That gap factors into RBC's concern about Pfizer's competitive position in emerging therapeutic areas.
To model the company's prospective earnings profile, RBC applied an 8.5 times multiple, a valuation it characterized as a trough figure ahead of an expected earnings decline through 2029. Using its projections and multiple, the firm derived a $25.00 price target for the shares, which it says reflects the downside risk embedded in its forecast.
Growth and profitability projections
RBC's forward-looking metrics include a negative 5% revenue compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030 and a negative 7% earnings per share compound annual growth rate over the same period. The firm described those rates as the weakest among its U.S. pharmaceutical coverage.
RBC noted that Pfizer's dividend, yielding 6.36% at the time of the coverage initiation, provides some downside support for the stock but does not fully counteract what the firm views as structural headwinds and a relative absence of catalysts in 2026 when compared with peers.
Recent operational and regulatory developments
In the most recent quarter, Pfizer reported revenue of $17.6 billion, beating a consensus estimate of $16.6 billion. The company also posted earnings per share of $0.66, which the report noted was about 16% ahead of forecasts.
On the regulatory front, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to BRAFTOVI in combination with other agents for metastatic colorectal cancer with a BRAF V600E mutation, based on results from the Phase 3 BREAKWATER trial. Separately, Pfizer is pursuing expanded approval for its hemophilia treatment HYMPAVZI in younger patients, with a decision expected by the second quarter of 2026.
Analyst divergence
Other research houses have taken different tacks on Pfizer. Barclays initiated coverage with an Underweight rating, citing challenges tied to upcoming patent expirations. Bernstein maintained a Market Perform stance with a $30 price target. Freedom Capital Markets raised its price target to $33 and retained a Buy rating, while noting ongoing pressure from declining COVID-related sales. These varied positions illustrate the range of judgement across sell-side analysts regarding Pfizer's near- and medium-term outlook.
Context for investors
RBC's initiation places emphasis on a multi-year revenue contraction absent near-term pipeline offsets and uses conservative valuation inputs to arrive at a sub-market price target. That outlook sits alongside evidence of recent operational outperformance and fresh regulatory approvals, creating a mixed picture that market participants and investors will need to weigh against their own assumptions about pipeline progress and competitive dynamics.
Where to find more research
The firm indicated its $25.00 target is the result of its internal financial projections and valuation multiple. Additional in-depth research on Pfizer is available through the complete company research report referenced by market research services.