RBC Capital has opened coverage of Eli Lilly and Company with an outperform rating and a price objective of $1,250 per share. The initiation, led by analyst Trung Huynh, frames the company’s obesity-treatment leadership as the primary rationale for the positive view through 2030.
At the time of the note, Eli Lilly shares were trading around $1,042 and the company carried a market capitalization of roughly $933 billion, bringing it closer to the $1 trillion mark highlighted by some investor concerns.
RBC Capital acknowledged broadly favorable Street sentiment toward the company but also flagged investor unease tied to high expectations, potential Medicare pricing pressures and risks related to market positioning as the market-cap threshold approaches. Despite those concerns, the firm argued that current consensus forecasts materially understate several transformative catalysts that it expects will crystallize value for shareholders.
Among the specific upside drivers identified by RBC Capital are a pending or negotiated Medicare agreement, the ex-U.S. commercial potential for orforglipron with a peak sales potential north of $35 billion, and an array of pipeline milestones. The research note emphasized that these potential events are not fully reflected in consensus numbers the firm observed.
RBC Capital also outlined structural strengths supporting its view: extended patent exclusivity into and beyond 2035, a manufacturing lead relative to peers, and projected revenue growth translating to a 14% compound annual growth rate toward approximately $130 billion in sales by 2033. The firm contrasted those forward-looking projections with Eli Lilly’s recent track record, noting 45% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 22%.
The initiation referenced a financial health metric showing a maximal Piotroski Score of 9, as reported by InvestingPro analysis. Based on the mix of fundamental strength and prospective catalysts, RBC Capital said the appropriate multiple should expand from about 31 times to 37 times, with the move justified as fundamentals outweigh short-term positioning worries.
RBC Capital’s $1,250 price target represents its valuation for the company’s equity under these assumptions.
Recent company developments cited alongside the coverage action include U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of a new multi-dose KwikPen device for Zepbound. The device provides an alternative to single-dose vials and permits a month's treatment to be delivered in one pen; Lilly is offering this option at the same self-pay price through LillyDirect.
Clinical trial readouts were also referenced. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide produced superior results in a head-to-head study versus Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema, which failed to meet its primary endpoint. RBC Capital and other market observers see such outcomes as supportive of Eli Lilly’s positioning within the obesity-treatment market.
Other firms have recently published their views on Eli Lilly as well. Barclays initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a $1,350 price target, highlighting the company's advances in GLP-1 treatments as altering the obesity-care landscape. Bank of America Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,293 price target, maintaining that stance even after Novo Nordisk announced cuts to GLP-1 list prices.
Additional clinical progress was noted for non-obesity indications: Eli Lilly reported that its Crohn’s disease therapy Omvoh demonstrated durable remission over three years in the Phase 3 VIVID-2 study. Collectively, the approvals and trial results cited underline the company’s ongoing momentum across multiple therapeutic areas.
While RBC Capital’s initiation underscores significant upside potential tied to product leadership, extended exclusivity and manufacturing scale, the firm also explicitly acknowledged near-term market sensitivities related to pricing negotiations, elevated investor expectations and portfolio positioning as Eli Lilly approaches a $1 trillion valuation.