RBC Capital has upgraded Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRI) from Sector Perform to Outperform and assigned a price target of $126.00. The research note comes after a pronounced pullback in the stock, which was trading at $89.31 at the time the update was issued.
The analyst behind the move, Drew McReynolds, characterizes the present setup for the company as an "asymmetric set-up" - an arrangement the firm interprets as offering more upside potential than downside risk following the recent share-price weakness. Data cited in the note shows the stock has declined 49.98% over the past six months.
RBC addresses the changing competitive backdrop driven by the rise of agentic artificial intelligence and the implications for Thomson Reuters' business. The firm warns that agentic AI introduces "more complex TAM and market share equations," but it stops short of seeing this complexity as purely negative. Instead, RBC writes that such dynamics could yield "a higher growth ceiling but with a wider range of outcomes."
Central to RBC's view is the evolution of total addressable market. The research team states that TAM evolution is "the most important determinant in assessing the growth and risk profile of the stock" in the context of advancing AI capabilities. That emphasis frames the upgrade: if TAM expands materially under new AI-driven use cases, the company could capture commensurate upside; if it does not, outcomes could be materially different.
RBC cautions further that any current calculations about Thomson Reuters' future market share should be treated with care. The firm suggests these scenarios are "illustrative and instructive rather than predictive or deterministic," reflecting the ongoing uncertainty about how agentic AI will reshape information services demand and competitive positions.
The instruction to view scenarios as illustrative underlines the inherent uncertainty in projecting market-share outcomes while the technology and its adoption continue to evolve. For investors, the upgrade signals that RBC now views the risk-reward profile more favorably than before, based on the combination of current valuation following the pullback and the potential for TAM expansion driven by AI.
Impacted sectors: Information services and technology firms that supply or compete in AI-enhanced data and analytics, as well as equity market participants tracking the company's shares.