Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

RBC Capital Lifts Ferguson Price Target to $271 Citing Positioning and Market Opportunity

Firm keeps Outperform rating after modest downward tweaks to near-term EBITDA estimates and management reaffirms medium-term targets

By Nina Shah FERG
RBC Capital Lifts Ferguson Price Target to $271 Citing Positioning and Market Opportunity
FERG

RBC Capital raised its price target on Ferguson Plc. to $271 from $247 and maintained an Outperform rating while trimming its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for calendar years 2026 and 2027 by 1% each. Management’s 2026 guidance was largely in line with expectations and the company reiterated medium-term growth and margin goals. Management also expanded its estimate of the addressable market for large capital projects, and Ferguson announced a quarterly dividend with key March and April dates.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital raised Ferguson’s price target to $271 from $247 and kept an Outperform rating.
  • RBC trimmed adjusted EBITDA estimates for calendar years 2026 and 2027 by 1% each; its estimates are now about 1% below prior Street consensus for those years.
  • Management raised the addressable market for large capital projects to approximately $90 billion from $50 billion and reiterated medium-term growth and margin targets (6%-11% annual growth; 10-30 bps operating margin expansion).

Overview

RBC Capital has increased its price objective for Ferguson Plc. (NYSE:FERG) to $271 from $247 and retained an Outperform rating. The stock is trading at $260.61, up 48.6% over the past 12 months and close to a 52-week high of $271.64.


Analyst adjustments and near-term outlook

The broker modestly reduced its adjusted EBITDA projections for Ferguson’s calendar year 2026 and 2027, lowering each by 1%. RBC noted that management’s guidance for calendar 2026 was broadly in line with expectations and that the company’s outlook likely contains a degree of conservatism. As a result of the revision, RBC’s estimates sit roughly 1% below prior Street consensus for both 2026 and 2027.


Medium-term objectives unchanged

Management updated its medium-term targets but left the numerical objectives largely intact. The company continues to target annual revenue growth in the 6% to 11% range and operating margin expansion of 10 to 30 basis points year-over-year. RBC and management both flagged that these are not immediate targets given the 2026 guidance and the soft macroeconomic backdrop.


Balance sheet and profitability metrics

RBC highlighted Ferguson’s financial capacity to pursue its medium-term ambitions. According to InvestingPro data cited by the firm, Ferguson reports a return on equity of 33% and a current ratio of 1.88, metrics the analyst team views as evidence of financial strength supporting future growth and margin improvement.


Market opportunity and positioning

Management raised its total addressable market estimate for large capital projects to about $90 billion from a prior $50 billion figure. RBC pointed to Ferguson’s positioning across attractive verticals and the company’s history of accretive capital deployment as supporting a pathway to stronger sales growth and margin expansion over time.


Analyst sentiment and valuation context

RBC said it continues to favor Ferguson on the basis of a balanced end-market mix, ongoing market share gains, and solid free cash flow generation. At the same time, InvestingPro analysis referenced by the firm suggests the stock is trading above its Fair Value. Despite that valuation gap, RBC notes the company’s track record and market positioning as attractive attributes.


Dividend and other research notes

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of $0.89 per share. The company set both the ex-dividend and record dates for March 6, 2026. Depositary Interest holders have until April 1, 2026 to make currency elections, and the dividend payment date is scheduled for April 30, 2026.

In separate research activity, Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating on Ferguson and emphasized the company’s growth potential tied to data center construction, projecting that large capital projects could increase companywide sales growth by 6% to 8% in fiscal 2026. Meanwhile, analysts at RBC Capital Markets maintained a cautious stance on the U.S. housing sector in a note that did not specifically address Ferguson.


What this means for investors

RBC’s price-target raise and maintained Outperform rating reflect a view that Ferguson’s market positioning and capital allocation can support longer-term growth and margin improvement, even as the firm trims near-term adjusted EBITDA estimates. Investors receive additional cash-return information through the announced dividend timetable and further context from other sell-side notes emphasizing large capital projects as a potential growth driver.

Risks

  • Near-term objectives may not be achievable given the conservative 2026 guidance and soft macroeconomic conditions - this impacts industrials and construction-related supply chains.
  • Valuation appears elevated versus Fair Value per InvestingPro analysis, presenting a risk to equity investors if expectations for growth or margin expansion are not met - this affects equities and investor allocations.
  • Exposure to sector-specific trends such as large capital project demand and the U.S. housing market introduces uncertainty to revenue forecasts and could influence sales growth and margins - this impacts construction, data center development, and building-products markets.

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