Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

RBC Capital Lifts Cenovus Price Target Citing Stronger Portfolio After MEG Deal

Analyst upgrades target to Cdn$31 while keeping Outperform call, citing leadership, cash generation and balance-sheet resilience

By Hana Yamamoto CVE
RBC Capital Lifts Cenovus Price Target Citing Stronger Portfolio After MEG Deal
CVE

RBC Capital raised its price target on Cenovus Energy to Cdn$31.00 from Cdn$29.00 and reiterated an Outperform rating, pointing to the company’s strengthened portfolio following the MEG Energy acquisition and the WRB disposition. The firm highlighted management alignment with shareholders, free cash flow generation and a conservative balance sheet as supporting factors. Market metrics show Cenovus trading at valuation multiples below its North American major peer group.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital raised its Cenovus Energy price target to Cdn$31.00 from Cdn$29.00 and kept an Outperform rating, citing leadership, shareholder alignment and free cash flow generation.
  • InvestingPro data show Cenovus with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and a current ratio of 1.73; valuation metrics include a 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 7.2x and an EV/EBITDA of 7.17.
  • Sector impact - Canadian and North American energy equities and corporate credit markets are implicated by Cenovus’s valuation, balance-sheet actions and broader geopolitical-driven volatility.

RBC Capital has increased its 12-month price objective for Cenovus Energy Inc. to Cdn$31.00 from Cdn$29.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The broker cited the company’s leadership team, shareholder alignment and free cash flow generation as drivers behind its constructive view, and singled out the portfolio changes following the MEG Energy acquisition and the WRB disposition as enhancements to Cenovus’s asset mix.

At the time of the note, Cenovus was trading at $21.58 and carried a market capitalization of $40.68 billion. RBC’s update rests in part on balance-sheet metrics that InvestingPro reports as sound: a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and a current ratio of 1.73. Those figures underpin the broker’s characterization of Cenovus as operating with a moderate debt burden and a healthy liquidity buffer.

On valuation, RBC calculates that under futures pricing Cenovus’s 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple stands at 7.2x, notably below the North American major peer group average of 10.0x. The company also posts an in-line free cash flow yield of 5% on an enterprise value basis. InvestingPro data cited by the firm show an EV/EBITDA of 7.17 and a P/E ratio of 17.16, metrics that inform RBC’s view that Cenovus merits a modest discount to its peers.

The increase in the price target represents a 7% lift from the prior Cdn$29.00 objective. RBC’s analysis balances positive elements such as capable management and a solid balance sheet against mixed operating and financial performance in recent years, which the firm says justifies some valuation discount versus North American majors.

Other market participants have recently acted on Cenovus. Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a price objective of $20.00, a level Goldman suggests implies roughly a 21% total return from the then-current price. Goldman’s outlook is premised on expectations for substantial long-term free cash flow growth.

Credit market activity around the company includes a Fitch Ratings assignment of a 'BBB' rating to Cenovus’s proposed senior unsecured notes, which are to be issued in Canadian and U.S. dollars. Proceeds from those securities are planned to retire MEG’s $600 million of 5.875% notes due 2029, to refinance existing Cenovus paper and to support general corporate purposes.

These company-specific developments come amid broader market headwinds for Canadian energy names tied to geopolitical news. Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil were among firms that experienced share-price pressure following reports related to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces, a factor that contributed to volatility in the sector.


Bottom line - RBC’s target raise to Cdn$31.00 and sustained Outperform rating reflect confidence in Cenovus’s leadership, improved portfolio construction after the MEG acquisition and a balance sheet described as moderate and healthy. Valuation metrics, however, keep the stock at a modest discount to North American peers amid mixed recent performance and wider market volatility in Canadian energy names.

Risks

  • Mixed recent operating and financial performance - Cenovus’s uneven results in recent years are cited as a reason for the firm to trade at a discount to peers, posing execution risk for valuation improvements - impacts oil and gas equities.
  • Market volatility tied to geopolitical events - sector-level declines tied to news such as the reported capture of Venezuela’s president have pressured Canadian energy stocks, creating uncertainty for share-price trajectories - impacts energy markets and investor sentiment.
  • Debt and refinancing risk related to note issuance - while Fitch assigned a 'BBB' to proposed senior unsecured notes, the notes are intended to refinance existing obligations including MEG’s $600 million 5.875% 2029 notes, exposing the company to capital markets and interest-rate considerations - impacts corporate credit and fixed-income investors.

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